Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Action RTS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action RTS Open World game?

Open World + Action RTS

Of 22 developers who shipped an Action RTS Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×126 the market median. Revenue is up 4875% on the market; 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 4875% on the market, 43 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Action RTS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $807 → $1.8k → $718 → $1.6k → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Action RTS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $189k (exactly $188,842)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 60
Announced 43
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4875% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Action RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Action RTS; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RTS, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,495 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M Cossacks 3 2016 · $7.4M 下一站江湖Ⅱ 2024 · $6.4M Rise of Piracy 2026 · EA · $249k Attack on Toys 2021 · EA · $243k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Cossacks 3 older $19.99 12,406 82% 372k $7.4M (exactly $7,439,878) GSC Game World
下一站江湖Ⅱ older $24.99 8,507 72% 255k $6.4M (exactly $6,377,698) 白玉京工作室
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Attack on Toys · EA older $6.99 1,158 93% 35k $243k (exactly $242,833) N7T-GAMES
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
BattleGroupVR2 · EA $24.99 209 85% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) SpaceOwl Games
Skies above the Great War older $11.99 140 75% 4.2k $50k (exactly $50,358) Puntigames
MIGLORN $9.99 54 68% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) WuzzyWizard
Stoneguard · EA $6.99 66 75% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,840) Thorn Spire Games
Deadrock Salvation $9.99 38 86% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) Ghost Machine
Periphery Online $4.99 50 72% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Aleksandr Nagaev
Space Menace 2 $9.99 20 75% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Only4Gamers
Knights of Conquest: Feudal Shenanigans Galore · EA $11.99 10 80% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) ES Galore
Hired Stars · EA $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Mark Kaps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.