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Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Open World game?
Open World + Turn-Based Strategy
Of 64 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×423 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 129 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
| Top 25% | $48k (exactly $48,252) |
| Top 5% | $634k (exactly $634,151) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 64 |
| Released games | 231 |
| Announced | 129 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Turn-Based Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Turn-Based Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 20,423 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ 2014 · $55M 
Wartales 2023 · $34M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition 2015 · $33M 
Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ | older | $29.99 | 60,770 97% | 1.8M | $55M (exactly $54,674,769) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | Wartales | older | $34.99 | 32,118 86% | 964k | $34M (exactly $33,714,265) | Shiro Games |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition | older | $39.99 | 27,485 88% | 825k | $33M (exactly $32,973,754) | Larian Studios |
| | Wandering Sword | older | $24.99 | 37,034 94% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $27,764,390) | The Swordman Studio |
 | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | For The King | older | $19.99 | 31,038 87% | 931k | $19M (exactly $18,613,489) | IronOak Games |
 | Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition | older | $19.99 | 28,146 77% | 844k | $17M (exactly $16,879,156) | Owlcat Games |
 | Total War: ATTILA | older | $19.99 | 26,918 82% | 808k | $16M (exactly $16,142,725) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | 龙胤立志传 | $19.99 | 7,153 77% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) | TPP Studio | |
 | The Matchless Kungfu | $19.99 | 6,755 79% | 203k | $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) | HuanMos Game | |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Destiny of Immortal | · EA | $11.99 | 1,763 80% | 53k | $634k (exactly $634,151) | LeiYun Games |
 | Approaching Infinity | $17.99 | 723 95% | 22k | $390k (exactly $390,203) | IBOL | |
 | NITRO GEN OMEGA | $29.99 | 398 83% | 12k | $358k (exactly $358,081) | DESTINYbit | |
 | Dokimon Quest | $14.99 | 393 75% | 12k | $177k (exactly $176,732) | Yanako RPGs | |
 | Chaos Front | $19.99 | 252 59% | 7.6k | $151k (exactly $151,124) | Han Zhiyu | |
 | Veterum | $19.99 | 204 85% | 6.1k | $122k (exactly $122,339) | Crasleen Games | |
 | Glorious Companions | $19.99 | 182 61% | 5.5k | $109k (exactly $109,145) | Ancient Forge |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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