Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Open World game?

Open World + Mystery

Of 197 developers who shipped a Mystery Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 493 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×255 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 493 games are announced against 124 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 493 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 197
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.9k → $719 → $2.4k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $1.8k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 197
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $383k (exactly $382,609)
Developers, 2 yr 197
Released games 566
Announced 493
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 68,402 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 493 games are announced against 124 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stray 2022 · $142M Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M Outer Wilds 2020 · $67M Firewatch 2016 · $56M DREDGE 2023 · $36M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
Outer Wilds older $24.99 89,506 95% 2.7M $67M (exactly $67,102,648) Mobius Digital
Firewatch older $19.99 93,690 90% 2.8M $56M (exactly $56,185,893) Campo Santo
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Ghostwire: Tokyo older $59.99 12,954 83% 389k $23M (exactly $23,313,314) Tango Gameworks
The Witness older $39.99 17,197 85% 516k $21M (exactly $20,631,241) Thekla, Inc.
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
The Complex: Expedition $14.99 2,620 89% 79k $1.2M (exactly $1,178,214) pgWave
HexBreaker Ⅱ $19.99 1,049 64% 31k $629k (exactly $629,085) 灵煦工作室
Equinox: Homecoming $14.99 1,294 80% 39k $582k (exactly $581,912) Blue Scarab Entertainment
The Gold River Project · EA $24.99 617 62% 19k $463k (exactly $462,565) Fairview Games Inc.
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.