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Should I ship a Gun Customization Open World game?
Open World + Gun Customization
Of 33 developers who shipped a Gun Customization Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×362 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 122 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,439) |
| Top 25% | $51k (exactly $51,249) |
| Top 5% | $543k (exactly $542,728) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 33 |
| Released games | 107 |
| Announced | 122 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Gun Customization
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Gun Customization; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Shooter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 3,779 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 5 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M 
Far Cry® 6 2023 · $60M 
Noita 2020 · $49M 
Sniper Elite 5 2022 · $37M 
Brick Rigs 2023 · $32M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Gray Zone Warfare | · EA older | $39.99 | 69,146 72% | 2.1M | $83M (exactly $82,954,456) | MADFINGER Games, a.s. |
| | Far Cry® 6 | older | $59.99 | 33,280 71% | 998k | $60M (exactly $59,894,016) | Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubis… (Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Berlin) |
| | Noita | older | $19.99 | 81,149 95% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,665,055) | Nolla Games |
| | Sniper Elite 5 | older | $49.99 | 24,818 83% | 745k | $37M (exactly $37,219,555) | Rebellion |
| | Brick Rigs | older | $19.99 | 53,749 95% | 1.6M | $32M (exactly $32,233,275) | Fluppisoft GmbH |
 | Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts | older | $29.99 | 10,966 73% | 329k | $9.9M (exactly $9,866,110) | CI Games |
 | Way of the Hunter | older | $29.99 | 8,528 81% | 256k | $7.7M (exactly $7,672,642) | Nine Rocks Games |
 | Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier™ | older | $19.99 | 5,506 71% | 165k | $3.3M (exactly $3,301,948) | Ubisoft Paris, Red Storm Entertainment |
 | Atomicrops | older | $14.99 | 5,134 93% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) | Bird Bath Games |
 | SAND LAND | older | $59.99 | 1,018 86% | 31k | $1.8M (exactly $1,832,095) | ILCA, Inc. |
 | Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone | · EA | $39.99 | 528 62% | 16k | $633k (exactly $633,442) | The Farm 51 |
 | Bad 2 Bad: Apocalypse | $19.99 | 905 77% | 27k | $543k (exactly $542,728) | DAWINSTONE | |
 | Cargo Hunters | · EA | $19.99 | 739 82% | 22k | $443k (exactly $443,178) | Order Of Meta |
 | Z.O.N.A: Origin | $19.99 | 540 83% | 16k | $324k (exactly $323,838) | AGaming+ | |
 | Sensual Adventures - Treasure Island | · EA | $29.99 | 303 81% | 9.1k | $273k (exactly $272,609) | Puppetmaster3dx |
 | SWAPMEAT | $16.49 | 304 86% | 9.1k | $150k (exactly $150,389) | One More Game | |
 | D.E.C.A.Y. | · EA | $24.99 | 82 84% | 2.5k | $61k (exactly $61,475) | AGaming+ |
 | Atomic Exile | · EA | $14.99 | 120 79% | 3.6k | $54k (exactly $53,964) | Inferno Muse Interactive |
 | Iridio | $19.99 | 87 86% | 2.6k | $52k (exactly $52,174) | KR Games | |
 | Decision Legacy Collection | $9.99 | 171 83% | 5.1k | $51k (exactly $51,249) | FlyAnvil |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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