Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Open World game?

Open World + PvE

Of 391 developers who shipped a PvE Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,134 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×2576 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 1,134 games are announced against 231 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 1,134 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 391
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.6k → $3.0k → $2.4k → $1.3k → $1.7k → $2.0k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 391
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,728)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249)
Developers, 2 yr 391
Released games 1,042
Announced 1,134
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, PvE; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Online Co-Op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,257,611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 204 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,134 games are announced against 231 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B Valheim 2026 · $418M Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Dying Light 2015 · $280M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
ARK: Survival Ascended · EA older $44.99 106,761 60% 3.2M $144M (exactly $144,095,322) Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games)
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 $69.99 14,063 44% 422k $30M (exactly $29,528,081) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware)
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.