Games › Open World › Open World + Sports
Should I ship a Sports Open World game?
Open World + Sports
Of 73 developers who shipped a Sports Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $5.4M, ×3656 the market median. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 109 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,249) |
| Top 25% | $61k (exactly $60,726) |
| Top 5% | $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 73 |
| Released games | 340 |
| Announced | 109 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Sports
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Sports; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Physics
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 138,535 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M 
Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M 
Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M 
Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M 
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017 · $102M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
| | Need for Speed™ Heat | older | $69.99 | 128,933 84% | 3.9M | $271M (exactly $270,720,620) | Ghost Games |
| | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
| | Need for Speed™ Unbound | older | $69.99 | 49,862 61% | 1.5M | $105M (exactly $104,695,241) | Criterion Games |
| | theHunter: Call of the Wild™ | older | $19.99 | 170,472 89% | 5.1M | $102M (exactly $102,232,058) | Expansive Worlds |
 | Assetto Corsa | older | $19.99 | 136,067 92% | 4.1M | $82M (exactly $81,599,380) | Kunos Simulazioni |
 | The Crew™ 2 | older | $29.99 | 86,533 78% | 2.6M | $78M (exactly $77,853,740) | Ivory Tower |
 | The Crew Motorfest | older | $69.99 | 24,230 78% | 727k | $51M (exactly $50,875,731) | Ubisoft Ivory Tower |
 | CarX Drift Racing Online | older | $16.99 | 82,720 95% | 2.5M | $42M (exactly $42,162,384) | CarX Technologies, LLC |
 | Assetto Corsa Competizione | older | $39.99 | 33,807 92% | 1.0M | $41M (exactly $40,558,258) | Kunos Simulazioni |
 | Assetto Corsa EVO | · EA | $39.99 | 16,545 60% | 496k | $20M (exactly $19,849,036) | KUNOS Simulazioni |
 | Cairn | $29.99 | 18,224 94% | 547k | $16M (exactly $16,396,133) | The Game Bakers | |
 | JDM: Japanese Drift Master | $34.99 | 5,217 75% | 157k | $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) | Gaming Factory | |
 | Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game | $24.99 | 6,638 94% | 199k | $5.0M (exactly $4,976,509) | MLMEDIA | |
 | STORROR Parkour Pro | · EA | $24.99 | 1,605 71% | 48k | $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) | Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios |
 | MAVRIX by Matt Jones | $39.99 | 969 80% | 29k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) | Third Kind Games | |
 | Beastieball | · EA | $24.99 | 1,483 97% | 44k | $1.1M (exactly $1,111,805) | Wishes Ultd. |
 | Wheel World | $19.99 | 735 90% | 22k | $441k (exactly $440,779) | Messhof | |
 | Descenders Next | · EA | $29.99 | 389 79% | 12k | $350k (exactly $349,983) | RageSquid |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.