Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Parkour

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Parkour Open World game?

Open World + Parkour

Of 57 developers who shipped a Parkour Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $47M, ×32020 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 106 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 106 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Parkour
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.8k → $1.1k → $2.4k → $11k → $3.1k → $750 → $4.9k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Parkour: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,805)
Top 5% $48M (exactly $47,965,604)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 224
Announced 106
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Parkour
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Parkour; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 191,481 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $47M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M Dying Light 2015 · $280M Assassin's Creed® Origins 2017 · $216M Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered 2022 · $183M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered older $59.99 101,879 96% 3.1M $183M (exactly $183,351,636) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
Watch_Dogs® 2 older $49.99 95,242 82% 2.9M $143M (exactly $142,834,427) Ubisoft
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ older $29.99 127,316 94% 3.8M $115M (exactly $114,546,205) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes)
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Echo Point Nova $24.99 7,521 96% 226k $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) Greylock Studio
Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game $24.99 6,638 94% 199k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,509) MLMEDIA
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.