Games › Open World › Open World + Puzzle
Should I ship a Puzzle Open World game?
Open World + Puzzle
Of 229 developers who shipped a Puzzle Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 440 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $940k, ×628 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 440 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,556) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $18,887) |
| Top 5% | $940k (exactly $940,186) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 229 |
| Released games | 783 |
| Announced | 440 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.50 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $9.50 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.50.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 98,333 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 130 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 440 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M 
Stray 2022 · $142M 
Ori and the Will of the Wisps 2020 · $122M 
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ 2016 · $115M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ | older | $39.99 | 153,782 88% | 4.6M | $184M (exactly $184,492,265) | Respawn Entertainment |
| | Stray | older | $29.99 | 157,579 97% | 4.7M | $142M (exactly $141,773,826) | BlueTwelve Studio |
| | Ori and the Will of the Wisps | older | $29.99 | 136,019 96% | 4.1M | $122M (exactly $122,376,294) | Moon Studios GmbH |
| | Rise of the Tomb Raider™ | older | $29.99 | 127,316 94% | 3.8M | $115M (exactly $114,546,205) | Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes) |
 | Human Fall Flat | older | $19.99 | 174,835 94% | 5.2M | $105M (exactly $104,848,549) | No Brakes Games |
 | Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 71,706 84% | 2.2M | $86M (exactly $86,025,688) | Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux)) |
 | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
 | Outer Wilds | older | $24.99 | 89,506 95% | 2.7M | $67M (exactly $67,102,648) | Mobius Digital |
 | Batman™: Arkham Knight | older | $19.99 | 111,190 92% | 3.3M | $67M (exactly $66,680,643) | Rocksteady Studios |
 | Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | $69.99 | 13,058 89% | 392k | $27M (exactly $27,417,883) | MachineGames | |
 | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | Hello Kitty Island Adventure | $39.99 | 9,637 93% | 289k | $12M (exactly $11,561,509) | Sunblink | |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | Little Witch in the Woods | $19.99 | 11,691 89% | 351k | $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) | SUNNY SIDE UP | |
 | Hell is Us | $49.99 | 4,279 83% | 128k | $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) | Rogue Factor | |
 | Enigma of Fear | $29.99 | 3,045 95% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) | Dumativa, Cellbit | |
 | Revenge of the Savage Planet | $29.99 | 2,845 86% | 85k | $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) | Raccoon Logic Studios Inc. | |
 | Gunsmith Simulator | $24.99 | 3,165 84% | 95k | $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) | GameHunters | |
 | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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