Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Open World game?

Open World + Psychological

Of 32 developers who shipped a Psychological Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1130 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 74 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 74 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $1.0k → $539 → $7.2k → $898 → $1.2k → $959 (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,198)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 95
Announced 74
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Colorful, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 7,583 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DREDGE 2023 · $36M Sherlock Holmes Chapter One 2021 · $5.7M The Suicide of Rachel Foster 2020 · $2.9M Pathologic 3 2026 · $2.7M Constance 2025 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Sherlock Holmes Chapter One older $44.99 4,189 77% 126k $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) Frogwares
The Suicide of Rachel Foster older $17.99 5,322 68% 160k $2.9M (exactly $2,872,283) ONE-O-ONE GAMES
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
Constance $19.99 2,822 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353) Blue Backpack
Kholat older $19.99 2,036 67% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,220,989) IMGN.PRO
The Town of Light older $18.99 2,052 79% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,024) LKA
The Park® older $12.99 2,534 69% 76k $988k (exactly $987,500) Funcom
The Lantern of the Laughless Saint · EA $19.99 1,460 89% 44k $876k (exactly $875,562) NerveLabs
Hyperbolica older $12.99 1,222 84% 37k $476k (exactly $476,213) CodeParade
Sister Ray $11.99 410 95% 12k $147k (exactly $147,477) The Growing Stones
ANGST: A TALE OF SURVIVAL $7.99 227 86% 6.8k $54k (exactly $54,412) Cherrypick Games
ART IS RIFLE $14.99 65 76% 2.0k $29k (exactly $29,230) Arman Pakan
Pigeon: A Love Story $7.99 42 92% 1.3k $10k (exactly $10,067) Wristwork
Escape From Infection Zone $39.99 6 100% 180 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) Funbang
Campfire: Night One $14.99 12 91% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Prisca, Mezey Krisztián
Inner Voice $12.49 11 90% 330 $4.1k (exactly $4,122) X INTERACTIVE

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.