Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Open World game?

Open World + Outbreak Sim

Only 12 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dread Dawn, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×846 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 25 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 25 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $955 → $539 → $33k → $13k
Outcomes for Open World + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,922)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 31
Announced 25
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Outbreak Sim
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 2,769 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dread Dawn 2024 · $1.3M ZED ZONE 2023 · EA · $1.3M Arizona Derby 2019 · $342k Afterinfection 2025 · $125k Pestis 2018 · $66k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
Arizona Derby older $18.99 601 77% 18k $342k (exactly $342,390) Falcon Interactive
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
Pestis older $24.99 88 77% 2.6k $66k (exactly $65,974) DIEDEMOR STUDIO GAMES
Genesis of a Small God $17.99 61 80% 1.8k $33k (exactly $32,922) Pierre Nury
Colonies of The Remnant · EA $13.99 71 7% 2.1k $30k (exactly $29,799) Cat Soul Studios
Extra Lives older $4.99 85 89% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) MDickie
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
Covid Simulator older $4.99 62 80% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) Coldrice Games LLC
Apocalypse Cult Leader $14.99 5 40% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Noxurtica
Sandbox Apocalypse · EA $11.99 5 80% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) 7Druids GmbH
Wendigo Land : Survive The Legend · EA $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Apinat Studios
Manifest369 power defence · EA $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) ManifestStudios
PROMIZED LAND: Outer Town 2025 $2.99 5 60% 150 $449 (exactly $449) PotaZOM, KRAKATOA STUDIOS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.