Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Open World game?

Open World + Logic

Of 72 developers who shipped a Logic Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×283 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 113 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 113 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $22k → $5.6k → $299 → $6.3k → $2.2k → $2.4k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Top 5% $425k (exactly $424,588)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 182
Announced 113
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Logic; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Puzzle, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 9,113 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stationeers 2017 · EA · $9.0M shapez 2020 · $4.3M Mars First Logistics 2025 · $2.1M Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure 2025 · $1.7M Islands of Insight 2024 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
shapez older $9.99 14,252 96% 428k $4.3M (exactly $4,271,324) Tobias Springer
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Islands of Insight older $29.99 1,604 75% 48k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,119) Lunarch Studios
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Taiji older $24.99 1,135 92% 34k $851k (exactly $850,910) Matthew VanDevander
Marble World older $19.99 1,268 89% 38k $760k (exactly $760,420) Vector Interactive
Modulus: Factory Automation $24.99 817 90% 25k $613k (exactly $612,505) Happy Volcano
Beltmatic older $6.99 2,199 94% 66k $461k (exactly $461,130) Notional Games
Noun Town Language Learning $19.99 708 84% 21k $425k (exactly $424,588) SUPER HYPER MEGA
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games
Atomcraft $14.99 407 94% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) Triplejump
Bat to the Heavens $14.99 407 95% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) ceroro
Gentoo Rescue $19.99 237 99% 7.1k $142k (exactly $142,129) Jagriff
Chroma Zero $9.99 317 96% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,005) ekorz
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.