Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Archery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Archery Open World game?

Open World + Archery

Only 15 developers shipped an Archery Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Unbridled: That Horse Game, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×244 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 47 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 47 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Archery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $6.3k → $2.4k → $49k → $750
Outcomes for Open World + Archery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $750 (exactly $750)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $49,151)
Top 5% $365k (exactly $365,104)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 50
Announced 47
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Archery
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Archery
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
The Pathless older $39.99 1,944 90% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,332,217) Giant Squid
BLACKTAIL older $29.99 1,968 83% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,610) THE PARASIGHT
Robin Hood - Sherwood Builders older $29.99 1,020 68% 31k $918k (exactly $917,694) MeanAstronauts
Unbridled: That Horse Game · EA $24.99 487 85% 15k $365k (exactly $365,104) Mind Evotion Games
The Axis Unseen $24.99 309 75% 9.3k $232k (exactly $231,657) Just Purkey Games
Eden Island older $14.99 232 58% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) Moon Studio
The End of Dyeus older $14.99 181 88% 5.4k $81k (exactly $81,396) Curious Planet
The Last King · EA $14.99 122 79% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) Mayawi software
DragonRoad $19.98 82 91% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,151) XuJie
Tales from The Dancing Moon $17.99 34 88% 1.0k $18k (exactly $18,350) DjMonkey
Heart of Eternity $7.99 17 76% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Ukrainian Development Company
South America Gold Rush · EA $9.99 9 44% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Argo Games
Forsaken Shores · EA $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Kuldan Studio
FIRE The First Dreamer $19.99 2 0% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) SIC Games
Phantom the Huntress $6.99 4 50% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Hoffnung Haydn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.