Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Open World game?

Open World + Roguelike

Of 116 developers who shipped a Roguelike Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 221 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×1329 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 221 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 221 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 116
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.1k → $449 → $2.8k → $4.7k → $1.9k → $1.3k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 116
Bottom 30% $416 (exactly $416)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $48,252)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404)
Developers, 2 yr 116
Released games 346
Announced 221
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, RPG, Action
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 218,346 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 221 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Don't Starve Together 2016 · $169M ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN 2025 · $155M The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome 2026 · $51M Noita 2020 · $49M Don't Starve 2013 · $29M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Don't Starve Together older $14.99 376,165 94% 11M $169M (exactly $169,161,400) Klei Entertainment
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Don't Starve older $9.99 97,007 96% 2.9M $29M (exactly $29,072,998) Klei Entertainment
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
嗜血印 Bloody Spell older $24.99 34,184 89% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,627,745) 艺龙游戏
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Bootstrap Island $24.99 1,362 81% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) Maru VR
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Descenders Next · EA $29.99 389 79% 12k $350k (exactly $349,983) RageSquid

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.