Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Open World game?

Open World + Incremental

Of 40 developers who shipped an Incremental Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×134 the market median. Revenue is up 290% on the market; 61 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 290% on the market, 61 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $297 → $449 → $839 → $1.2k → $5.8k → $479 → $2.5k (still earning) → $23k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,186)
Top 5% $201k (exactly $201,466)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 113
Announced 61
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 290% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Incremental; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Collectathon
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 5,350 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BitCraft Online 2025 · EA · $1.6M Outpath 2023 · $1.3M Gourdlets 2024 · $293k 万词破 - 单词女友 2026 · $201k Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator 2025 · $175k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
Gourdlets older $4.99 1,954 92% 59k $293k (exactly $292,514) AuntyGames
万词破 - 单词女友 $14.99 448 89% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) 万词破学游组
Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator $14.99 390 95% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) BitBros Inc
Mosaic of the Strange $12.99 226 92% 6.8k $88k (exactly $88,072) Mark Ffrench
Giant Waifu Wash Simulator 💦 $14.99 194 65% 5.8k $87k (exactly $87,242) Lewd Star
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
Denos City: Complete Game older $11.99 217 70% 6.5k $78k (exactly $78,055) Backhole
Reprisal Universe older $6.99 337 75% 10k $71k (exactly $70,669) electrolyte
Snowed Under | 雪葬 $7.99 194 60% 5.8k $47k (exactly $46,502) Chilla's Art
Risky Business $6.90 146 73% 4.4k $30k (exactly $30,222) Nouliz
Sniper Camouflage Orange Spy Warrior I Buried Two Bodies in the Garden and the Police Haven't Figured Out Yet That They're Missing Because They Were a Lonely Old Couple Who Had No Relatives Simulator 2026 · EA $9.99 77 66% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) The Only Way Out
My Money Grows On Trees $9.99 44 54% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Tbjbu2

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.