Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War game?

Cold War

Of 102 developers who shipped a Cold-War game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 224 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1759 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 224 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 224 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 102
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $742 → $6.2k → $13k → $900 → $10k → $1.8k (still earning) → $7.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 102
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,599)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832)
Developers, 2 yr 102
Released games 422
Announced 224
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 43,144 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 224 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Cold War

42 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Turn-Based Strategy + Cold War Fair $9.9k 18 devs
  2. PvP + Cold War Poor odds $66k 13 devs
  3. Real Time Tactics + Cold War Poor odds $19k 9 devs
  4. Sandbox + Cold War Poor odds $19k 9 devs
  5. Open World + Cold War Poor odds $18k 7 devs
  6. RPG + Cold War Poor odds $17k 6 devs
  7. Tactical + Cold War Poor odds $15k 23 devs
  8. Grand Strategy + Cold War Poor odds $15k 13 devs
  9. Simulation + Cold War Poor odds $11k 36 devs
  10. Wargame + Cold War Poor odds $11k 34 devs
  11. Flight + Cold War Poor odds $11k 10 devs
  12. FPS + Cold War Poor odds $10k 16 devs
  13. Puzzle + Cold War Poor odds $10k 16 devs
  14. Action-Adventure + Cold War Poor odds $10k 15 devs
  15. Stealth + Cold War Poor odds $10k 7 devs
  16. Political Sim + Cold War Poor odds $9.9k 15 devs
  17. Strategy + Cold War Poor odds $7.2k 38 devs
  18. Turn-Based Tactics + Cold War Poor odds $7.2k 8 devs
  19. Exploration + Cold War Poor odds $7.0k 26 devs
  20. Choices Matter + Cold War Poor odds $7.0k 19 devs
  21. Multiple Endings + Cold War Poor odds $7.0k 18 devs
  22. Point & Click + Cold War Poor odds $7.0k 7 devs
  23. Shooter + Cold War Poor odds $6.4k 28 devs
  24. Choose Your Own Adventure + Cold War Poor odds $5.0k 8 devs
  25. Interactive Fiction + Cold War Poor odds $5.0k 8 devs
  26. Visual Novel + Cold War Poor odds $5.0k 6 devs
  27. RTS + Cold War Poor odds $4.8k 12 devs
  28. Adventure + Cold War Poor odds $3.8k 35 devs
  29. Immersive Sim + Cold War Poor odds $3.8k 8 devs
  30. Combat + Cold War Poor odds $2.4k 24 devs
  31. Action + Cold War Poor odds $2.3k 42 devs
  32. Management + Cold War Poor odds $1.3k 14 devs
  33. PvE + Cold War Poor odds $1.3k 12 devs
  34. Survival + Cold War Poor odds $1.3k 8 devs
  35. Economy + Cold War Poor odds $1.2k 12 devs
  36. Vehicular Combat + Cold War Poor odds $807 15 devs
  37. Co-op + Cold War Dead $83k 6 devs
  38. Third-Person Shooter + Cold War Dead $20k 6 devs
  39. Physics + Cold War Dead $19k 3 devs
  40. Diplomacy + Cold War Dead $13k 10 devs
  41. Tanks + Cold War Dead $7.2k 7 devs
  42. Arcade + Cold War Dead $450 12 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War 2023 · $40M Rising Storm 2: Vietnam 2017 · $32M Call of Duty®: Black Ops 2010 · $27M METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER 2025 · $20M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arma Reforger older $39.99 51,613 80% 1.5M $62M (exactly $61,920,116) Bohemia Interactive
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War older $59.99 21,955 79% 659k $40M (exactly $39,512,414) Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games)
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Call of Duty®: Black Ops older $39.99 22,244 91% 667k $27M (exactly $26,686,127) Treyarch
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES older $19.99 13,535 84% 406k $8.1M (exactly $8,116,939) KONAMI
Metro Awakening $29.99 3,013 73% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) Vertigo Games
Wild Assault $14.99 3,861 68% 116k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) Combat Cat Studio
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
'83 · EA $29.99 1,228 65% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) Blue Dot Games
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version $19.99 925 79% 28k $555k (exactly $554,722) KONAMI
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.