Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Cold War
Should I ship a Cold-War Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Cold War
Only 6 developers shipped a Cold-War Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Heroines Through My Lens, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×160 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 17 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.0k (exactly $5,036) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $18,591) |
| Top 5% | $101k (exactly $100,750) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 6 |
| Released games | 28 |
| Announced | 17 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Cold War
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel
- Price point
- $11.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 5,083 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 17 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
South of the Circle 2022 · $524k 
Wolfstride 2021 · $351k 
Heroines Through My Lens 2025 · $101k 
Sakuya Izayoi Gives You Advice And Dabs 2020 · $58k 
Orwell's Animal Farm 2020 · $45k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | South of the Circle | older | $12.99 | 1,345 83% | 40k | $524k (exactly $524,146) | State of Play |
| | Wolfstride | older | $14.99 | 780 89% | 23k | $351k (exactly $350,766) | OTA IMON Studios |
| | Heroines Through My Lens | $19.99 | 168 87% | 5.0k | $101k (exactly $100,750) | Storytaco | |
| | Sakuya Izayoi Gives You Advice And Dabs | older | $0.99 | 1,947 97% | 58k | $58k (exactly $57,826) | Sigyaad Team |
| | Orwell's Animal Farm | older | $9.99 | 150 75% | 4.5k | $45k (exactly $44,955) | Nerial |
 | Socialism Simulator | older | $3.99 | 240 95% | 7.2k | $29k (exactly $28,728) | Sempiternal Rain |
 | Neoproxima | older | $12.99 | 69 97% | 2.1k | $27k (exactly $26,889) | Lonestone Studio |
 | Missile Command Delta | $19.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $19k (exactly $18,591) | 13AM Games, Mighty Yell | |
 | My Dictator Stalin Can't Be This Cute ?! | older | $1.49 | 285 92% | 8.6k | $13k (exactly $12,740) | uwucorp |
 | Blind Men | older | $3.99 | 68 88% | 2.0k | $8.1k (exactly $8,140) | Man-Eater Games |
 | Femboy Streamer | $11.99 | 14 35% | 420 | $5.0k (exactly $5,036) | Pepperjak | |
 | Space is Red | $6.99 | 14 78% | 420 | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) | Febrvvm | |
 | 墨缇斯：霾影季度 | $5.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $359 (exactly $359) | 青礼社Bendetizoin | |
 | Duty Guvnor | $8.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Articulable LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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