Games › Wargame › Wargame + Cold War
Should I ship a Cold-War Wargame?
Wargame + Cold War
Of 34 developers who shipped a Cold-War Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1788 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 49 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $807 (exactly $807) |
|---|---|
| Median | $11k (exactly $10,778) |
| Top 25% | $160k (exactly $160,468) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 34 |
| Released games | 112 |
| Announced | 49 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Combat
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Top-Down, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 12,412 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $810. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + LogicFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam 2017 · $32M 
WARNO 2024 · $17M 
Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M 
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age 2024 · EA · $9.2M 
Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rising Storm 2: Vietnam | older | $24.99 | 42,381 87% | 1.3M | $32M (exactly $31,773,036) | Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive |
| | WARNO | older | $39.99 | 14,502 80% | 435k | $17M (exactly $17,398,049) | Eugen Systems |
| | Wargame: Red Dragon | older | $29.99 | 15,758 88% | 473k | $14M (exactly $14,177,473) | Eugen Systems |
| | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
| | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
 | Gunner, HEAT, PC! | · EA older | $29.99 | 7,603 91% | 228k | $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) | Radian Simulations LLC |
 | Cold Waters | older | $39.99 | 4,603 87% | 138k | $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) | Killerfish Games |
 | Regiments | older | $29.99 | 2,822 87% | 85k | $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) | Bird's Eye Games |
 | Wargame: Airland Battle | older | $19.99 | 3,592 86% | 108k | $2.2M (exactly $2,154,122) | Eugen Systems |
 | DEFCON | older | $11.99 | 3,460 86% | 104k | $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) | Introversion Software |
 | ICBM: Escalation | $29.99 | 1,248 86% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) | SoftWarWare | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | Vietnam War | · EA | $14.99 | 1,704 84% | 51k | $766k (exactly $766,289) | Thorium Game Lab |
 | Scavland | · EA | $19.99 | 800 81% | 24k | $480k (exactly $479,760) | NoShadow |
 | Air Defender | · EA | $20.19 | 364 78% | 11k | $220k (exactly $220,475) | ROTOR3 |
 | Metal Thunder | · EA | $10.99 | 567 76% | 17k | $187k (exactly $186,940) | Dumbbell Games |
 | Armored Brigade II | $39.99 | 147 87% | 4.4k | $176k (exactly $176,356) | Veitikka Studios | |
 | Flashpoint Campaigns: Cold War | $49.99 | 107 99% | 3.2k | $160k (exactly $160,468) | On Target Simulations | |
 | F-22: Air Dominance Fighter | $19.99 | 138 91% | 4.1k | $83k (exactly $82,759) | Digital Image Design Ltd. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.