Should I ship a Cold-War game?
Cold War
Of 102 developers who shipped a Cold-War game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 224 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1759 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 224 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,774) |
| Top 25% | $22k (exactly $21,599) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 102 |
| Released games | 422 |
| Announced | 224 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Cold War
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 43,144 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 224 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
All pairs with Cold War
No pair with Cold War has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War 2023 · $40M 
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam 2017 · $32M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 2010 · $27M 
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER 2025 · $20M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Arma Reforger | older | $39.99 | 51,613 80% | 1.5M | $62M (exactly $61,920,116) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War | older | $59.99 | 21,955 79% | 659k | $40M (exactly $39,512,414) | Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games) |
| | Rising Storm 2: Vietnam | older | $24.99 | 42,381 87% | 1.3M | $32M (exactly $31,773,036) | Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops | older | $39.99 | 22,244 91% | 667k | $27M (exactly $26,686,127) | Treyarch |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER | $49.99 | 13,554 82% | 407k | $20M (exactly $20,326,934) | KONAMI | |
 | WARNO | older | $39.99 | 14,502 80% | 435k | $17M (exactly $17,398,049) | Eugen Systems |
 | Wargame: Red Dragon | older | $29.99 | 15,758 88% | 473k | $14M (exactly $14,177,473) | Eugen Systems |
 | Hell Let Loose: Vietnam | $39.99 | 10,702 61% | 321k | $13M (exactly $12,839,189) | Expression Games | |
 | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES | older | $19.99 | 13,535 84% | 406k | $8.1M (exactly $8,116,939) | KONAMI |
 | Metro Awakening | $29.99 | 3,013 73% | 90k | $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) | Vertigo Games | |
 | Wild Assault | $14.99 | 3,861 68% | 116k | $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) | Combat Cat Studio | |
 | ICBM: Escalation | $29.99 | 1,248 86% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) | SoftWarWare | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | Vietnam War | · EA | $14.99 | 1,704 84% | 51k | $766k (exactly $766,289) | Thorium Game Lab |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version | $19.99 | 925 79% | 28k | $555k (exactly $554,722) | KONAMI | |
 | Scavland | · EA | $19.99 | 800 81% | 24k | $480k (exactly $479,760) | NoShadow |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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