Games › Tactical › Tactical + Cold War
Should I ship a Cold-War Tactical game?
Tactical + Cold War
Of 23 developers who shipped a Cold-War Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $15k, ×24 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2765 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 36 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) |
|---|---|
| Median | $15k (exactly $15,290) |
| Top 25% | $176k (exactly $176,356) |
| Top 5% | $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 86 |
| Announced | 36 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Tactical; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Shooter
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Violent
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 72% positive over 31,238 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Football (American)Strong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + 6DOFFair
- + Word GameFair
- + TypingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + Farming SimFair
- + SolitaireFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
Comparable games
Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War 2023 · $40M 
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam 2017 · $32M 
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER 2025 · $20M 
WARNO 2024 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Arma Reforger | older | $39.99 | 51,613 80% | 1.5M | $62M (exactly $61,920,116) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War | older | $59.99 | 21,955 79% | 659k | $40M (exactly $39,512,414) | Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games) |
| | Rising Storm 2: Vietnam | older | $24.99 | 42,381 87% | 1.3M | $32M (exactly $31,773,036) | Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER | $49.99 | 13,554 82% | 407k | $20M (exactly $20,326,934) | KONAMI | |
| | WARNO | older | $39.99 | 14,502 80% | 435k | $17M (exactly $17,398,049) | Eugen Systems |
 | Wargame: Red Dragon | older | $29.99 | 15,758 88% | 473k | $14M (exactly $14,177,473) | Eugen Systems |
 | Hell Let Loose: Vietnam | $39.99 | 10,702 61% | 321k | $13M (exactly $12,839,189) | Expression Games | |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES | older | $19.99 | 13,535 84% | 406k | $8.1M (exactly $8,116,939) | KONAMI |
 | Cold Waters | older | $39.99 | 4,603 87% | 138k | $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) | Killerfish Games |
 | Phantom Doctrine | older | $39.99 | 3,821 73% | 115k | $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) | CreativeForge Games |
 | Wild Assault | $14.99 | 3,861 68% | 116k | $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) | Combat Cat Studio | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version | $19.99 | 925 79% | 28k | $555k (exactly $554,722) | KONAMI | |
 | Metal Thunder | · EA | $10.99 | 567 76% | 17k | $187k (exactly $186,940) | Dumbbell Games |
 | Armored Brigade II | $39.99 | 147 87% | 4.4k | $176k (exactly $176,356) | Veitikka Studios | |
 | For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee | $14.99 | 176 88% | 5.3k | $79k (exactly $79,147) | KMS STUDIO | |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID: MASTER COLLECTION Vol.2 | $49.99 | 49 65% | 1.5k | $73k (exactly $73,485) | KONAMI | |
 | BURNED HORIZONS | · EA | $44.99 | 29 34% | 870 | $39k (exactly $39,141) | BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.