Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Cold War

Only 18 developers shipped a Cold-War Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Flashpoint Campaigns: Cold War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.9k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $540. Revenue is up 1870% on the market; 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 1870% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $112k → $900 → $19k → $9.9k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $9.9k (exactly $9,890)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Top 5% $160k (exactly $160,468)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 58
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1870% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Wargame, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 553 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $9.9k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  3. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  4. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  6. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  8. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  9. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  10. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  11. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced
  12. + SteampunkFair25 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

WARNO 2024 · $17M Phantom Doctrine 2018 · $4.6M Xenonauts 2014 · $2.9M Rule the Waves 3 2023 · $1.0M 60 Parsecs! 2018 · $992k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Phantom Doctrine older $39.99 3,821 73% 115k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) CreativeForge Games
Xenonauts older $24.99 3,815 86% 114k $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) Goldhawk Interactive
Rule the Waves 3 older $39.99 855 87% 26k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,744) Naval Warfare Simulations
60 Parsecs! older $9.99 3,310 90% 99k $992k (exactly $992,007) Robot Gentleman
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Buzz Aldrin's Space Program Manager older $29.99 418 74% 13k $376k (exactly $376,075) Polar Motion
Wolfstride older $14.99 780 89% 23k $351k (exactly $350,766) OTA IMON Studios
Flashpoint Campaigns: Red Storm Player's Edition older $49.99 212 87% 6.4k $318k (exactly $317,936) On Target Simulations
Combat Mission Cold War older $59.99 156 60% 4.7k $281k (exactly $280,753) Battlefront
Flashpoint Campaigns: Cold War $49.99 107 99% 3.2k $160k (exactly $160,468) On Target Simulations
Maestro's Cold War 2 $12.99 170 92% 5.1k $66k (exactly $66,249) Maestro Cinetik
Missile Command Delta $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) 13AM Games, Mighty Yell
Rise of Atom $19.99 29 79% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) Glass Bubble Software
Eye of the Commando · EA $14.99 34 100% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Adventurepro Games LLC
SkyChart: Airline Executive · EA $24.99 20 75% 600 $15k (exactly $14,994) Casey Jones Labs
POTUS Election Sim $9.99 47 53% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Dackers Studios
1953: NATO vs Warsaw Pact $5.99 70 41% 2.1k $13k (exactly $12,579) Wastelands Interactive
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
Cold War Battles $19.99 12 91% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Kudos Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.