Should I ship a Cold-War PvE game?
PvE + Cold War
Only 12 developers shipped a Cold-War PvE game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kvark, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) |
| Top 25% | $39k (exactly $39,141) |
| Top 5% | $276k (exactly $276,462) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 44 |
| Announced | 39 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 729 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + HeistPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War 2023 · $40M 
Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M 
Regiments 2022 · $2.5M 
Military Conflict: Vietnam 2022 · EA · $915k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Arma Reforger | older | $39.99 | 51,613 80% | 1.5M | $62M (exactly $61,920,116) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War | older | $59.99 | 21,955 79% | 659k | $40M (exactly $39,512,414) | Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games) |
| | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
| | Regiments | older | $29.99 | 2,822 87% | 85k | $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) | Bird's Eye Games |
| | Military Conflict: Vietnam | · EA older | $14.99 | 2,035 91% | 61k | $915k (exactly $915,140) | Dustfade |
 | Kvark | $19.99 | 461 86% | 14k | $276k (exactly $276,462) | Latest Past, Perun Creative | |
 | Armored Brigade II | $39.99 | 147 87% | 4.4k | $176k (exactly $176,356) | Veitikka Studios | |
 | PunjiVR: The Vietnam War | older | $12.99 | 126 76% | 3.8k | $49k (exactly $49,102) | Camden Cleveland |
 | BURNED HORIZONS | · EA | $44.99 | 29 34% | 870 | $39k (exactly $39,141) | BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO |
 | Socialism Simulator | older | $3.99 | 240 95% | 7.2k | $29k (exactly $28,728) | Sempiternal Rain |
 | Red Tears: Angola | · EA | $14.99 | 39 84% | 1.2k | $18k (exactly $17,538) | Arun Haines |
 | DokiDoki Hanetsuki VR: Paddle & Ink | · EA | $14.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) | momodu |
 | Frontline: Afrika Korps | $14.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) | Frontline: Games Series | |
 | Laika's Space Defence | $1.99 | 21 100% | 630 | $1.3k (exactly $1,254) | Para Fauna Studios | |
 | The Island of Thugs | $0.99 | 19 78% | 570 | $564 (exactly $564) | Big Green Platypus | |
 | Blue Fury | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Tim Wheatley | |
 | Politburo Simulator | $1.99 | 5 40% | 150 | $298 (exactly $298) | Will Whitworth |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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