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Should I ship a Cold-War Diplomacy game?
Diplomacy + Cold War
Only 10 developers shipped a Cold-War Diplomacy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $13k against a market of $630. 12 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $900 (exactly $900) |
|---|---|
| Median | $13k (exactly $12,579) |
| Top 25% | $22k (exactly $21,599) |
| Top 5% | $167k (exactly $167,311) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 12 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Diplomacy
- Price point
- $7.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,109 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Diplomacy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Space SimLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
Comparable games
DEFCON 2006 · $1.2M 
Arms Trade Tycoon: Tanks 2024 · EA · $900k 
Twilight Struggle 2016 · $770k 
First Strike 2017 · $689k 
Crisis in the Kremlin 2017 · $205k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DEFCON | older | $11.99 | 3,460 86% | 104k | $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) | Introversion Software |
| | Arms Trade Tycoon: Tanks | · EA older | $29.99 | 1,000 65% | 30k | $900k (exactly $899,700) | FunGi |
| | Twilight Struggle | older | $9.99 | 2,568 86% | 77k | $770k (exactly $769,630) | Playdek, Inc. |
| | First Strike | older | $11.99 | 1,916 75% | 57k | $689k (exactly $689,185) | Blindflug Studios AG |
| | Crisis in the Kremlin | older | $4.99 | 1,372 83% | 41k | $205k (exactly $205,388) | Nostalgames |
 | China: Mao's legacy | older | $6.99 | 978 90% | 29k | $205k (exactly $205,087) | Nostalgames |
 | Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War | $7.99 | 698 80% | 21k | $167k (exactly $167,311) | Nostalgames | |
 | Ostalgie: The Berlin Wall | older | $5.99 | 666 92% | 20k | $120k (exactly $119,680) | Nostalgames |
 | Stellar Monarch | older | $14.99 | 206 78% | 6.2k | $93k (exactly $92,638) | Silver Lemur Games |
 | For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee | $14.99 | 176 88% | 5.3k | $79k (exactly $79,147) | KMS STUDIO | |
 | Kiloton | $6.99 | 103 96% | 3.1k | $22k (exactly $21,599) | Jack Morehart | |
 | SkyChart: Airline Executive | · EA | $24.99 | 20 75% | 600 | $15k (exactly $14,994) | Casey Jones Labs |
 | 1953: NATO vs Warsaw Pact | $5.99 | 70 41% | 2.1k | $13k (exactly $12,579) | Wastelands Interactive | |
 | Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy | $9.99 | 33 90% | 990 | $9.9k (exactly $9,890) | Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio | |
 | Government Contractors: Arms of Influence | · EA | $6.00 | 5 20% | 150 | $900 (exactly $900) | Dan K. |
 | World War Forex | · EA | $12.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $390 (exactly $390) | Leobot Electronics, Leon Botha, INESSOFT |
 | 墨缇斯：霾影季度 | $5.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $359 (exactly $359) | 青礼社Bendetizoin | |
 | Panama Canal Clash | $1.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $60 (exactly $60) | Gamesforgames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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