Do I ship it?

GamesMultiple EndingsMultiple Endings + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Multiple Endings game?

Multiple Endings + Cold War

Only 18 developers shipped a Cold-War Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Air Defender, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×351 the market median. Revenue is up 8595% on the market; 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 8595% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Multiple Endings + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $9.9k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Multiple Endings + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Median $7.0k (exactly $7,036)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,982)
Top 5% $220k (exactly $220,475)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 43
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 8595% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Multiple Endings; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 1980s, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,640 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  2. + WuxiaFair11 devs · median $230k · 18 announced
  3. + Level EditorFair17 devs · median $8.1k · 23 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair32 devs · median $5.8k · 42 announced
  5. + SuperheroFair15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  6. + 4 Player LocalFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  8. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  9. + TriviaFair14 devs · median $1.7k · 15 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair40 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair176 devs · median $598 · 180 announced
  12. + Arena ShooterFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced

All 214 pairs on the Multiple Endings page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chornobyl Liquidators older $19.99 595 50% 18k $357k (exactly $356,822) Live Motion Games, Frozen Way
1979 Revolution: Black Friday older $9.99 1,021 76% 31k $306k (exactly $305,994) iNK Stories, N-Fusion Interactive
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
Crisis in the Kremlin older $4.99 1,372 83% 41k $205k (exactly $205,388) Nostalgames
China: Mao's legacy older $6.99 978 90% 29k $205k (exactly $205,087) Nostalgames
Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War $7.99 698 80% 21k $167k (exactly $167,311) Nostalgames
Ostalgie: The Berlin Wall older $5.99 666 92% 20k $120k (exactly $119,680) Nostalgames
Heroines Through My Lens $19.99 168 87% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) Storytaco
For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee $14.99 176 88% 5.3k $79k (exactly $79,147) KMS STUDIO
Orwell's Animal Farm older $9.99 150 75% 4.5k $45k (exactly $44,955) Nerial
Kriophobia $14.99 60 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) Fira Soft
What Awaits, Aleksey? $15.99 51 86% 1.5k $24k (exactly $24,465) JKBC
Rise of Atom $19.99 29 79% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) Glass Bubble Software
Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy $9.99 33 90% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio
Project Looking Glass $4.99 47 100% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) MORPH
Femboy Streamer $11.99 14 35% 420 $5.0k (exactly $5,036) Pepperjak

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.