Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Cold War

Only 8 developers shipped a Cold-War Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Heroines Through My Lens, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×2.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×67 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 36 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 36 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $54k → $3.8k → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,424)
Top 5% $101k (exactly $100,750)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 28
Announced 36
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 58,043 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 36 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
I Expect You To Die older $24.99 2,169 95% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) Schell Games
DEFCON older $11.99 3,460 86% 104k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) Introversion Software
Red Matter older $24.99 994 90% 30k $745k (exactly $745,202) Vertical Robot
Chornobyl Liquidators older $19.99 595 50% 18k $357k (exactly $356,822) Live Motion Games, Frozen Way
Dangerous Waters older $14.99 353 79% 11k $159k (exactly $158,744) Sonalysts
Heroines Through My Lens $19.99 168 87% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) Storytaco
OVRLRD · EA older $29.99 96 85% 2.9k $86k (exactly $86,371) OVRLRD
Sonar Shock older $7.99 224 80% 6.7k $54k (exactly $53,693) Raphael Bossniak
SALVO $11.99 54 77% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Erdem Şahin, Naim Ozcan
The Core · EA $19.99 17 70% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Electric Machine Games
Your letter has been rejected. $5.99 21 95% 630 $3.8k (exactly $3,774) MONAZ.
12 Months: Vietnam $3.99 16 68% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) AlphaSixGames
DokiDoki Hanetsuki VR: Paddle & Ink · EA $14.99 4 100% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) momodu
World War Forex · EA $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Leobot Electronics, Leon Botha, INESSOFT
Dark Sea $0.99 8 87% 240 $238 (exactly $238) DarkSignal Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.