Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Co-op game?

Co-op + Cold War

Only 6 developers shipped a Cold-War Co-op game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Wild Assault, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $83k against a market of $1.5k. 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 55.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 23 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Co-op + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,336)
Median $83k (exactly $82,759)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 28
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 94,771 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $83k, 1 in 4 over $1.1M, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War older $59.99 21,955 79% 659k $40M (exactly $39,512,414) Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games)
Call of Duty®: Black Ops older $39.99 22,244 91% 667k $27M (exactly $26,686,127) Treyarch
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Wargame: Airland Battle older $19.99 3,592 86% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,154,122) Eugen Systems
Wild Assault $14.99 3,861 68% 116k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) Combat Cat Studio
DEFCON older $11.99 3,460 86% 104k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) Introversion Software
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 - Uprising older $6.96 4,572 84% 137k $955k (exactly $954,634) EA Los Angeles
Sniper Elite older $7.99 3,579 76% 107k $858k (exactly $857,886) Rebellion
F-22: Air Dominance Fighter $19.99 138 91% 4.1k $83k (exactly $82,759) Digital Image Design Ltd.
Source Code $19.99 33 60% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Blitzball.Inc
Chornobyl Breakout $0.99 45 71% 1.4k $1.3k (exactly $1,336) Dark Duck Games
Cold Transit · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) cmlodev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.