Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Exploration game?

Exploration + Cold War

Of 26 developers who shipped a Cold-War Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1220 the market median. Revenue is up 285% on the market; 42 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 285% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $100k → $27k → $4.7k → $10k → $18k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $7.0k (exactly $7,036)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,424)
Top 5% $766k (exactly $766,289)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 80
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 285% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 20,651 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER 2025 · $20M METAL GEAR SOLID 3: Snake Eater - Master Collection Version 2023 · $3.2M Jazzpunk: Director's Cut 2014 · $2.9M Metro Awakening 2024 · $2.7M 60 Parsecs! 2018 · $992k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
METAL GEAR SOLID 3: Snake Eater - Master Collection Version older $19.99 5,403 89% 162k $3.2M (exactly $3,240,179) KONAMI
Jazzpunk: Director's Cut older $14.99 6,407 94% 192k $2.9M (exactly $2,881,228) Necrophone Games
Metro Awakening $29.99 3,013 73% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) Vertigo Games
60 Parsecs! older $9.99 3,310 90% 99k $992k (exactly $992,007) Robot Gentleman
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Red Matter older $24.99 994 90% 30k $745k (exactly $745,202) Vertical Robot
METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version $19.99 925 79% 28k $555k (exactly $554,722) KONAMI
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
Chornobyl Liquidators older $19.99 595 50% 18k $357k (exactly $356,822) Live Motion Games, Frozen Way
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
METAL GEAR SOLID: MASTER COLLECTION Vol.2 $49.99 49 65% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) KONAMI
Kriophobia $14.99 60 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) Fira Soft
SALVO $11.99 54 77% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Erdem Şahin, Naim Ozcan
Missile Command Delta $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) 13AM Games, Mighty Yell

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.