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Should I ship a Cold-War Turn-Based Tactics?
Turn-Based Tactics + Cold War
Only 8 developers shipped a Cold-War Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BURNED HORIZONS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $39k, ×62 the market median. Revenue is up 4220% on the market; 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.2k (exactly $7,196) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $18,591) |
| Top 5% | $39k (exactly $39,141) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 35 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4220% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Tactics
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Cold War
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Tactics
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 15,027 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + TanksFair
- + AutomationFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DiceFair
- + MiningFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + PuzzleFair
- + PlatformerLong shot
Comparable games
Phantom Doctrine 2018 · $4.6M 
Xenonauts 2014 · $2.9M 
60 Parsecs! 2018 · $992k 
Twilight Struggle 2016 · $770k 
Flashpoint Campaigns: Red Storm Player's Edition 2014 · $318k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Phantom Doctrine | older | $39.99 | 3,821 73% | 115k | $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) | CreativeForge Games |
| | Xenonauts | older | $24.99 | 3,815 86% | 114k | $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) | Goldhawk Interactive |
| | 60 Parsecs! | older | $9.99 | 3,310 90% | 99k | $992k (exactly $992,007) | Robot Gentleman |
| | Twilight Struggle | older | $9.99 | 2,568 86% | 77k | $770k (exactly $769,630) | Playdek, Inc. |
| | Flashpoint Campaigns: Red Storm Player's Edition | older | $49.99 | 212 87% | 6.4k | $318k (exactly $317,936) | On Target Simulations |
 | Combat Mission Cold War | older | $59.99 | 156 60% | 4.7k | $281k (exactly $280,753) | Battlefront |
 | Möbius Front '83 | older | $19.99 | 328 74% | 9.8k | $197k (exactly $196,702) | Zachtronics |
 | Flashpoint Campaigns: Southern Storm | older | $59.99 | 75 86% | 2.3k | $135k (exactly $134,978) | On Target Simulations |
 | Lock 'n Load Tactical Digital: Core Game | · EA older | $4.99 | 566 82% | 17k | $85k (exactly $84,730) | Lock 'n Load Publishing |
 | The Bluecoats: North & South | older | $14.99 | 176 61% | 5.3k | $79k (exactly $79,147) | Appeal Studios |
 | BURNED HORIZONS | · EA | $44.99 | 29 34% | 870 | $39k (exactly $39,141) | BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO |
 | Missile Command Delta | $19.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $19k (exactly $18,591) | 13AM Games, Mighty Yell | |
 | Rise of Atom | $19.99 | 29 79% | 870 | $17k (exactly $17,391) | Glass Bubble Software | |
 | Cold War Battles | $19.99 | 12 91% | 360 | $7.2k (exactly $7,196) | Kudos Games | |
 | Launch Them All | $5.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $539 (exactly $539) | 3rd Shift Studios | |
 | Strategic Stalemate | $4.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | Lixdy | |
 | Daily War Online | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Xorbis | |
 | Battleships Combat: Evolved | $2.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $90 (exactly $90) | Mantegral Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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