Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War RTS?

RTS + Cold War

Only 12 developers shipped a Cold-War RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×6116 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 16 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1M → $22k → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,844)
Top 25% $220k (exactly $220,475)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 50
Announced 16
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 8,047 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $220k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

WARNO 2024 · $17M Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age 2024 · EA · $9.2M Cold Waters 2017 · $5.5M Tropico 4 2011 · $3.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Cold Waters older $39.99 4,603 87% 138k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) Killerfish Games
Tropico 4 older $14.99 8,211 91% 246k $3.7M (exactly $3,692,487) Haemimont Games
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Wargame: Airland Battle older $19.99 3,592 86% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,154,122) Eugen Systems
DEFCON older $11.99 3,460 86% 104k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) Introversion Software
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Radio Commander: Vietnam '64 older $19.99 1,764 72% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,057,871) Serious Sim
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
Armored Brigade II $39.99 147 87% 4.4k $176k (exactly $176,356) Veitikka Studios
Kiloton $6.99 103 96% 3.1k $22k (exactly $21,599) Jack Morehart
MoeArmy vs SuArmy $2.99 54 83% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,844) KumiLGames
Final Strategy $12.99 6 16% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) Final Strategy Studio
Frontline: Afrika Korps $14.99 3 100% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Frontline: Games Series
Lunokhod $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Lunokhod Labs
Government Contractors: Arms of Influence · EA $6.00 5 20% 150 $900 (exactly $900) Dan K.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.