Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Physics game?

Physics + Cold War

Only 3 developers shipped a Cold-War Physics game in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 7 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $19k against a market of $630. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 30.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Physics + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,374)
Top 5% $900k (exactly $899,700)
Developers, 4 yr 7
Released games 26
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 35%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 16,912 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 16 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Arms Trade Tycoon: Tanks · EA older $29.99 1,000 65% 30k $900k (exactly $899,700) FunGi
The Ball older $9.99 830 74% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Teotl Studios
Save Jesus older $4.99 1,482 90% 44k $222k (exactly $221,855) Almighty Games
Mahjong older $9.99 589 84% 18k $177k (exactly $176,523) Sanuk Games
Aggressor · EA older $19.99 172 61% 5.2k $103k (exactly $103,148) Flashpoint Studios
Sub Command older $18.99 136 74% 4.1k $77k (exactly $77,479) Sonalysts
PunjiVR: The Vietnam War older $12.99 126 76% 3.8k $49k (exactly $49,102) Camden Cleveland
Nuclear Design Bureau · EA $9.99 88 79% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) Design Bureau KB-11
Noise older $4.99 153 57% 4.6k $23k (exactly $22,904) Talentplace
SALVO $11.99 54 77% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Erdem Şahin, Naim Ozcan
Avoid The Stalin's Purge $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) DNCG

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.