Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Cold War

Only 9 developers shipped a Cold-War Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×31 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×14589 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 30.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 16 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $900 (exactly $900)
Median $19k (exactly $19,424)
Top 25% $176k (exactly $176,356)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 34
Announced 16
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 101,496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  9. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  10. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  11. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds33 devs · median $6.4k · 59 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arma Reforger older $39.99 51,613 80% 1.5M $62M (exactly $61,920,116) Bohemia Interactive
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Wargame: Airland Battle older $19.99 3,592 86% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,154,122) Eugen Systems
Radio Commander: Vietnam '64 older $19.99 1,764 72% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,057,871) Serious Sim
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Line War older $24.99 1,076 80% 32k $807k (exactly $806,677) Studio Centurion
Wargame: European Escalation older $9.99 2,605 76% 78k $781k (exactly $780,718) Eugen Systems
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
Armored Brigade II $39.99 147 87% 4.4k $176k (exactly $176,356) Veitikka Studios
BURNED HORIZONS · EA $44.99 29 34% 870 $39k (exactly $39,141) BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO
SALVO $11.99 54 77% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Erdem Şahin, Naim Ozcan
MoeArmy vs SuArmy $2.99 54 83% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,844) KumiLGames
Government Contractors: Arms of Influence · EA $6.00 5 20% 150 $900 (exactly $900) Dan K.
IRON SIGHT · EA $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Blackmonkgaming
Web Wars $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Phantom Jelly Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.