Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Cold War

Only 15 developers shipped a Cold-War Action-Adventure in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×7.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $20M, ×32368 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 51 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 51 announced, ×7.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $15k → $2.0k → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $836 (exactly $836)
Median $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 25% $766k (exactly $766,289)
Top 5% $20M (exactly $20,326,934)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 42
Announced 51
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 23,059 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $760k, 1 in 20 over $20M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
METAL GEAR SOLID 3: Snake Eater - Master Collection Version older $19.99 5,403 89% 162k $3.2M (exactly $3,240,179) KONAMI
Metro Awakening $29.99 3,013 73% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) Vertigo Games
Wild Assault $14.99 3,861 68% 116k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) Combat Cat Studio
UnMetal older $19.99 2,404 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,441,679) @unepic_fran
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut older $14.99 1,682 87% 50k $756k (exactly $756,395) Rotorist Workshop
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
Chornobyl Liquidators older $19.99 595 50% 18k $357k (exactly $356,822) Live Motion Games, Frozen Way
PAW Patrol The Movie: Adventure City Calls older $39.99 58 51% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Drakhar Studio
Red Tears: Angola · EA $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Arun Haines
Eye of the Commando · EA $14.99 34 100% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Adventurepro Games LLC
The Core · EA $19.99 17 70% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Electric Machine Games
Fullbright Presents TOILET SPIDERS $5.99 26 73% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Fullbright
Sleepless $5.99 11 54% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) CaRuFy, Nagodo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.