Do I ship it?

GamesTanksTanks + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Tank game?

Tanks + Cold War

Only 7 developers shipped a Cold-War Tank game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $7.2k against a market of $630. 12 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 12 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tanks + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $176k → $555k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tanks + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 25% $555k (exactly $554,722)
Top 5% $766k (exactly $766,289)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 39
Announced 12
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tanks
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tanks
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 64,493 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $550k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tanks with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 26 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  3. + Turn-Based TacticsFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  4. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 13 announced
  5. + Open WorldFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  6. + 2D PlatformerFair11 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds10 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  8. + RPGPoor odds13 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  9. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds18 devs · median $7.2k · 23 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $4.0k · 19 announced
  11. + Real Time TacticsPoor odds22 devs · median $3.2k · 38 announced
  12. + TacticalPoor odds49 devs · median $2.5k · 85 announced

All 71 pairs on the Tanks page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
METAL GEAR SOLID 3: Snake Eater - Master Collection Version older $19.99 5,403 89% 162k $3.2M (exactly $3,240,179) KONAMI
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Wargame: Airland Battle older $19.99 3,592 86% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,154,122) Eugen Systems
Arms Trade Tycoon: Tanks · EA older $29.99 1,000 65% 30k $900k (exactly $899,700) FunGi
Line War older $24.99 1,076 80% 32k $807k (exactly $806,677) Studio Centurion
Wargame: European Escalation older $9.99 2,605 76% 78k $781k (exactly $780,718) Eugen Systems
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version $19.99 925 79% 28k $555k (exactly $554,722) KONAMI
Armored Brigade II $39.99 147 87% 4.4k $176k (exactly $176,356) Veitikka Studios
METAL GEAR SOLID: MASTER COLLECTION Vol.2 $49.99 49 65% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) KONAMI
Cold War Battles $19.99 12 91% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Kudos Games
Final Strategy $12.99 6 16% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) Final Strategy Studio
Frontline: Afrika Korps $14.99 3 100% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Frontline: Games Series
FEBA Gunship R $2.99 9 100% 270 $807 (exactly $807) rucsgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.