Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Vehicular Combat game?

Vehicular Combat + Cold War

Only 15 developers shipped a Cold-War Vehicular Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hell Let Loose: Vietnam, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $12M, ×20445 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 14 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Vehicular Combat + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $748 (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Vehicular Combat + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $176k (exactly $176,356)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $12,839,189)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 34
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Vehicular Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Vehicular Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 13,357 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $810, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Vehicular Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Looter ShooterFair11 devs · median $15k · 14 announced
  2. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds29 devs · median $62k · 75 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $32k · 101 announced
  5. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 36 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $20k · 43 announced
  7. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $15k · 97 announced
  8. + ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 36 announced
  9. + SandboxPoor odds25 devs · median $10k · 70 announced
  10. + Real Time TacticsPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $8.6k · 25 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds24 devs · median $4.8k · 52 announced

All 98 pairs on the Vehicular Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rising Storm 2: Vietnam 2017 · $32M Hell Let Loose: Vietnam 2026 · $13M Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M Gunner, HEAT, PC! 2022 · EA · $6.8M Tiny Combat Arena 2022 · EA · $906k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
Tiny Combat Arena · EA older $19.99 1,511 81% 45k $906k (exactly $906,147) Why485, MicroProse Software
Arms Trade Tycoon: Tanks · EA older $29.99 1,000 65% 30k $900k (exactly $899,700) FunGi
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
Armored Brigade II $39.99 147 87% 4.4k $176k (exactly $176,356) Veitikka Studios
Aggressor · EA older $19.99 172 61% 5.2k $103k (exactly $103,148) Flashpoint Studios
F-22: Air Dominance Fighter $19.99 138 91% 4.1k $83k (exactly $82,759) Digital Image Design Ltd.
Hijong Park's Defender Patrol $4.99 72 98% 2.2k $11k (exactly $10,778) Hijong Park
Blood Red Rebirth $7.99 10 90% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Finborough Games
FEBA Gunship R $2.99 9 100% 270 $807 (exactly $807) rucsgames
IRON SIGHT · EA $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Blackmonkgaming
Sky Scramble $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) SpunjLabs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.