Should I ship a Cold-War RPG?
RPG + Cold War
Only 6 developers shipped a Cold-War RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Scavland, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $17k, ×28 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×764 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $17k (exactly $17,391) |
| Top 25% | $101k (exactly $100,750) |
| Top 5% | $480k (exactly $479,760) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 6 |
| Released games | 36 |
| Announced | 27 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.
Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 18,861 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Phantom Doctrine 2018 · $4.6M 
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified 2013 · $2.9M 
60 Parsecs! 2018 · $992k 
Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut 2021 · $756k 
Scavland 2026 · EA · $480k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Phantom Doctrine | older | $39.99 | 3,821 73% | 115k | $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) | CreativeForge Games |
| | The Bureau: XCOM Declassified | older | $19.99 | 4,857 67% | 146k | $2.9M (exactly $2,912,743) | 2K Marin |
| | 60 Parsecs! | older | $9.99 | 3,310 90% | 99k | $992k (exactly $992,007) | Robot Gentleman |
| | Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut | older | $14.99 | 1,682 87% | 50k | $756k (exactly $756,395) | Rotorist Workshop |
| | Scavland | · EA | $19.99 | 800 81% | 24k | $480k (exactly $479,760) | NoShadow |
 | Chornobyl Liquidators | older | $19.99 | 595 50% | 18k | $357k (exactly $356,822) | Live Motion Games, Frozen Way |
 | Wolfstride | older | $14.99 | 780 89% | 23k | $351k (exactly $350,766) | OTA IMON Studios |
 | Crisis in the Kremlin | older | $4.99 | 1,372 83% | 41k | $205k (exactly $205,388) | Nostalgames |
 | China: Mao's legacy | older | $6.99 | 978 90% | 29k | $205k (exactly $205,087) | Nostalgames |
 | Ostalgie: The Berlin Wall | older | $5.99 | 666 92% | 20k | $120k (exactly $119,680) | Nostalgames |
 | Heroines Through My Lens | $19.99 | 168 87% | 5.0k | $101k (exactly $100,750) | Storytaco | |
 | Rise of Atom | $19.99 | 29 79% | 870 | $17k (exactly $17,391) | Glass Bubble Software | |
 | Statecraft: Corrupted Democracy | $9.99 | 33 90% | 990 | $9.9k (exactly $9,890) | Engincan Çiçek, Bad Engine Studio | |
 | 墨缇斯：霾影季度 | $5.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $359 (exactly $359) | 青礼社Bendetizoin | |
 | Duty Guvnor | $8.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Articulable LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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