Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War FPS?

FPS + Cold War

Only 16 developers shipped a Cold-War FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hell Let Loose: Vietnam, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×6.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $12M, ×8571 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 39 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $1.9k → $6.2k → $276k → $6.4k → $18k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,336)
Median $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 25% $766k (exactly $766,289)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $12,839,189)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 77
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 17,283 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $760k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War 2023 · $40M Rising Storm 2: Vietnam 2017 · $32M Call of Duty®: Black Ops 2010 · $27M Hell Let Loose: Vietnam 2026 · $13M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arma Reforger older $39.99 51,613 80% 1.5M $62M (exactly $61,920,116) Bohemia Interactive
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War older $59.99 21,955 79% 659k $40M (exactly $39,512,414) Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games)
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Call of Duty®: Black Ops older $39.99 22,244 91% 667k $27M (exactly $26,686,127) Treyarch
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
Metro Awakening $29.99 3,013 73% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) Vertigo Games
'83 · EA $29.99 1,228 65% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) Blue Dot Games
Military Conflict: Vietnam · EA older $14.99 2,035 91% 61k $915k (exactly $915,140) Dustfade
Sniper Elite older $7.99 3,579 76% 107k $858k (exactly $857,886) Rebellion
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
Source Code $19.99 33 60% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Blitzball.Inc
Red Tears: Angola · EA $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Arun Haines
The Core · EA $19.99 17 70% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Electric Machine Games
UNSIGHT $7.99 42 50% 1.3k $10k (exactly $10,067) C51 Games
Bolsheviktion 3D $4.88 44 93% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,442) Pelican Blue Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.