Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Combat game?

Combat + Cold War

Of 24 developers who shipped a Cold-War Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1759 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 46 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 46 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $299 → $6.2k → $86k → $13k → $359 → $2.3k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 25% $83k (exactly $82,759)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 73
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 14,908 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $82k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Freedom Fighters older $14.99 2,574 94% 77k $1.2M (exactly $1,157,528) IO Interactive A/S
'83 · EA $29.99 1,228 65% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) Blue Dot Games
Tiny Combat Arena · EA older $19.99 1,511 81% 45k $906k (exactly $906,147) Why485, MicroProse Software
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Combat Mission Cold War older $59.99 156 60% 4.7k $281k (exactly $280,753) Battlefront
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
Möbius Front '83 older $19.99 328 74% 9.8k $197k (exactly $196,702) Zachtronics
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
F-22: Air Dominance Fighter $19.99 138 91% 4.1k $83k (exactly $82,759) Digital Image Design Ltd.
Red Tears: Angola · EA $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Arun Haines
1953: NATO vs Warsaw Pact $5.99 70 41% 2.1k $13k (exactly $12,579) Wastelands Interactive
UNSIGHT $7.99 42 50% 1.3k $10k (exactly $10,067) C51 Games
MoeArmy vs SuArmy $2.99 54 83% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,844) KumiLGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.