Games › Open World › Open World + Cold War
Should I ship a Cold-War Open World game?
Open World + Cold War
Only 7 developers shipped a Cold-War Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vietnam War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $18k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×512 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
|---|---|
| Median | $18k (exactly $17,538) |
| Top 25% | $480k (exactly $479,760) |
| Top 5% | $766k (exactly $766,289) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 7 |
| Released games | 32 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 500% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Cold War
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 86,589 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M 
METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES 2014 · $8.1M 
Cold Waters 2017 · $5.5M 
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified 2013 · $2.9M 
Sniper Elite 2009 · $858k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Arma Reforger | older | $39.99 | 51,613 80% | 1.5M | $62M (exactly $61,920,116) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES | older | $19.99 | 13,535 84% | 406k | $8.1M (exactly $8,116,939) | KONAMI |
| | Cold Waters | older | $39.99 | 4,603 87% | 138k | $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) | Killerfish Games |
| | The Bureau: XCOM Declassified | older | $19.99 | 4,857 67% | 146k | $2.9M (exactly $2,912,743) | 2K Marin |
| | Sniper Elite | older | $7.99 | 3,579 76% | 107k | $858k (exactly $857,886) | Rebellion |
 | IL-2 Sturmovik: 1946 | older | $9.99 | 2,653 88% | 80k | $795k (exactly $795,104) | 1C: Maddox Games |
 | Vietnam War | · EA | $14.99 | 1,704 84% | 51k | $766k (exactly $766,289) | Thorium Game Lab |
 | Arma: Cold War Assault Remastered | older | $9.99 | 2,402 89% | 72k | $720k (exactly $719,879) | Bohemia Interactive, Josef Šimánek (ret… (Bohemia Interactive, Josef Šimánek (retro)) |
 | Scavland | · EA | $19.99 | 800 81% | 24k | $480k (exactly $479,760) | NoShadow |
 | Tropico 3 | older | $9.99 | 843 90% | 25k | $253k (exactly $252,647) | Haemimont Games |
 | Heroines Through My Lens | $19.99 | 168 87% | 5.0k | $101k (exactly $100,750) | Storytaco | |
 | Red Tears: Angola | · EA | $14.99 | 39 84% | 1.2k | $18k (exactly $17,538) | Arun Haines |
 | DokiDoki Hanetsuki VR: Paddle & Ink | · EA | $14.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) | momodu |
 | Lost Stories | $6.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $419 (exactly $419) | Fugon | |
 | Ghost Dragon III | $2.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Laurent Cancé |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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