Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Simulation game?

Simulation + Cold War

Of 36 developers who shipped a Cold-War Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×14589 the market median. Revenue is up 570% on the market; 83 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 570% on the market, 83 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $807 → $357k → $86k → $900 → $11k → $2.3k (still earning) → $26k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $11k (exactly $10,791)
Top 25% $83k (exactly $82,759)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 164
Announced 83
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 570% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Wargame, Action
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 20,297 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $82k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arma Reforger older $39.99 51,613 80% 1.5M $62M (exactly $61,920,116) Bohemia Interactive
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
Cold Waters older $39.99 4,603 87% 138k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) Killerfish Games
Tropico 4 older $14.99 8,211 91% 246k $3.7M (exactly $3,692,487) Haemimont Games
Jazzpunk: Director's Cut older $14.99 6,407 94% 192k $2.9M (exactly $2,881,228) Necrophone Games
'83 · EA $29.99 1,228 65% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) Blue Dot Games
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
Armored Brigade II $39.99 147 87% 4.4k $176k (exactly $176,356) Veitikka Studios
Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War $7.99 698 80% 21k $167k (exactly $167,311) Nostalgames
Heroines Through My Lens $19.99 168 87% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) Storytaco
F-22: Air Dominance Fighter $19.99 138 91% 4.1k $83k (exactly $82,759) Digital Image Design Ltd.
For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee $14.99 176 88% 5.3k $79k (exactly $79,147) KMS STUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.