Should I ship a Cold-War PvP game?
PvP + Cold War
Only 13 developers shipped a Cold-War PvP game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hell Let Loose: Vietnam, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $66k, ×44 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $12M, ×8571 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $66k (exactly $66,249) |
| Top 25% | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) |
| Top 5% | $13M (exactly $12,839,189) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 49 |
| Announced | 31 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 450% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 18,311 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War 2023 · $40M 
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam 2017 · $32M 
WARNO 2024 · $17M 
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam 2026 · $13M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Arma Reforger | older | $39.99 | 51,613 80% | 1.5M | $62M (exactly $61,920,116) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War | older | $59.99 | 21,955 79% | 659k | $40M (exactly $39,512,414) | Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games) |
| | Rising Storm 2: Vietnam | older | $24.99 | 42,381 87% | 1.3M | $32M (exactly $31,773,036) | Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive |
| | WARNO | older | $39.99 | 14,502 80% | 435k | $17M (exactly $17,398,049) | Eugen Systems |
| | Hell Let Loose: Vietnam | $39.99 | 10,702 61% | 321k | $13M (exactly $12,839,189) | Expression Games | |
 | Wild Assault | $14.99 | 3,861 68% | 116k | $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) | Combat Cat Studio | |
 | DEFCON | older | $11.99 | 3,460 86% | 104k | $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) | Introversion Software |
 | ICBM: Escalation | $29.99 | 1,248 86% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) | SoftWarWare | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | ICBM | older | $19.99 | 1,655 91% | 50k | $993k (exactly $992,503) | SoftWarWare, K-Project |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version | $19.99 | 925 79% | 28k | $555k (exactly $554,722) | KONAMI | |
 | F-22: Air Dominance Fighter | $19.99 | 138 91% | 4.1k | $83k (exactly $82,759) | Digital Image Design Ltd. | |
 | Maestro's Cold War 2 | $12.99 | 170 92% | 5.1k | $66k (exactly $66,249) | Maestro Cinetik | |
 | Source Code | $19.99 | 33 60% | 990 | $20k (exactly $19,790) | Blitzball.Inc | |
 | Launch Them All | $5.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $539 (exactly $539) | 3rd Shift Studios | |
 | Sky Scramble | $5.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $539 (exactly $539) | SpunjLabs |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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