Games › Shooter › Shooter + Cold War
Should I ship a Cold-War Shooter?
Shooter + Cold War
Of 28 developers who shipped a Cold-War Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.4k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4317 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 65 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.4k (exactly $6,442) |
| Top 25% | $276k (exactly $276,462) |
| Top 5% | $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 28 |
| Released games | 113 |
| Announced | 65 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, FPS
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 67% positive over 22,408 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + VampiresFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Match 3Fair
- + SnowFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + Score AttackLong shot
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
Comparable games
Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War 2023 · $40M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 2010 · $27M 
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam 2026 · $13M 
METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES 2014 · $8.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Arma Reforger | older | $39.99 | 51,613 80% | 1.5M | $62M (exactly $61,920,116) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War | older | $59.99 | 21,955 79% | 659k | $40M (exactly $39,512,414) | Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games) |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops | older | $39.99 | 22,244 91% | 667k | $27M (exactly $26,686,127) | Treyarch |
| | Hell Let Loose: Vietnam | $39.99 | 10,702 61% | 321k | $13M (exactly $12,839,189) | Expression Games | |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES | older | $19.99 | 13,535 84% | 406k | $8.1M (exactly $8,116,939) | KONAMI |
 | Gunner, HEAT, PC! | · EA older | $29.99 | 7,603 91% | 228k | $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) | Radian Simulations LLC |
 | The Bureau: XCOM Declassified | older | $19.99 | 4,857 67% | 146k | $2.9M (exactly $2,912,743) | 2K Marin |
 | Metro Awakening | $29.99 | 3,013 73% | 90k | $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) | Vertigo Games | |
 | Wild Assault | $14.99 | 3,861 68% | 116k | $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) | Combat Cat Studio | |
 | Freedom Fighters | older | $14.99 | 2,574 94% | 77k | $1.2M (exactly $1,157,528) | IO Interactive A/S |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | Vietnam War | · EA | $14.99 | 1,704 84% | 51k | $766k (exactly $766,289) | Thorium Game Lab |
 | Scavland | · EA | $19.99 | 800 81% | 24k | $480k (exactly $479,760) | NoShadow |
 | Kvark | $19.99 | 461 86% | 14k | $276k (exactly $276,462) | Latest Past, Perun Creative | |
 | Metal Thunder | · EA | $10.99 | 567 76% | 17k | $187k (exactly $186,940) | Dumbbell Games |
 | Source Code | $19.99 | 33 60% | 990 | $20k (exactly $19,790) | Blitzball.Inc | |
 | Red Tears: Angola | · EA | $14.99 | 39 84% | 1.2k | $18k (exactly $17,538) | Arun Haines |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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