Games › Action › Action + Cold War
Should I ship a Cold-War Action game?
Action + Cold War
Of 42 developers who shipped a Cold-War Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 123 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4317 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 123 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,338) |
| Top 25% | $187k (exactly $186,940) |
| Top 5% | $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 42 |
| Released games | 208 |
| Announced | 123 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Shooter, Exploration, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 43,144 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 5 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 123 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-Time with PauseFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + PinballFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BaseballFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + IdlerFair
- + TennisFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + TabletopFair
- + WuxiaPoor odds
Comparable games
Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War 2023 · $40M 
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam 2017 · $32M 
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 2010 · $27M 
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER 2025 · $20M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Arma Reforger | older | $39.99 | 51,613 80% | 1.5M | $62M (exactly $61,920,116) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War | older | $59.99 | 21,955 79% | 659k | $40M (exactly $39,512,414) | Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games) |
| | Rising Storm 2: Vietnam | older | $24.99 | 42,381 87% | 1.3M | $32M (exactly $31,773,036) | Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive |
| | Call of Duty®: Black Ops | older | $39.99 | 22,244 91% | 667k | $27M (exactly $26,686,127) | Treyarch |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER | $49.99 | 13,554 82% | 407k | $20M (exactly $20,326,934) | KONAMI | |
 | Wargame: Red Dragon | older | $29.99 | 15,758 88% | 473k | $14M (exactly $14,177,473) | Eugen Systems |
 | Hell Let Loose: Vietnam | $39.99 | 10,702 61% | 321k | $13M (exactly $12,839,189) | Expression Games | |
 | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES | older | $19.99 | 13,535 84% | 406k | $8.1M (exactly $8,116,939) | KONAMI |
 | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
 | Metro Awakening | $29.99 | 3,013 73% | 90k | $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) | Vertigo Games | |
 | Wild Assault | $14.99 | 3,861 68% | 116k | $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) | Combat Cat Studio | |
 | ICBM: Escalation | $29.99 | 1,248 86% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) | SoftWarWare | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | Vietnam War | · EA | $14.99 | 1,704 84% | 51k | $766k (exactly $766,289) | Thorium Game Lab |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version | $19.99 | 925 79% | 28k | $555k (exactly $554,722) | KONAMI | |
 | Scavland | · EA | $19.99 | 800 81% | 24k | $480k (exactly $479,760) | NoShadow |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.