Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel?

Visual Novel

Of 3,151 developers who shipped a Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,534 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×27 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×2571 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 4,534 games are announced against 1,913 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 27.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 4,534 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,151
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.9k → $7.2k → $6.7k → $5.0k → $4.3k → $4.5k → $2.4k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,151
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,235)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,377)
Top 5% $306k (exactly $305,952)
Developers, 2 yr 3,151
Released games 12,712
Announced 4,534
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Visual Novel
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 319,666 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 2,228 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,534 games are announced against 1,913 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Visual Novel

123 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. FMV + Visual Novel Strong odds $54k 166 devs
  2. City Builder + Visual Novel Strong odds $19k 10 devs
  3. Souls-like + Visual Novel Fair $27k 25 devs
  4. Minigames + Visual Novel Fair $22k 20 devs
  5. Rhythm + Visual Novel Fair $18k 38 devs
  6. JRPG + Visual Novel Fair $13k 219 devs
  7. Immersive Sim + Visual Novel Fair $7.8k 399 devs
  8. Swordplay + Visual Novel Fair $5.7k 13 devs
  9. Gambling + Visual Novel Fair $5.7k 16 devs
  10. Diplomacy + Visual Novel Fair $5.4k 16 devs
  11. 2D Fighter + Visual Novel Fair $4.0k 11 devs
  12. Sports + Visual Novel Fair $3.4k 38 devs
  13. Escape Room + Visual Novel Fair $2.7k 17 devs
  14. Arcade + Visual Novel Fair $2.6k 101 devs
  15. Visual Novel + Idler Fair $2.5k 93 devs
  16. Visual Novel + Incremental Fair $1.9k 246 devs
  17. Logic + Visual Novel Fair $1.6k 114 devs
  18. Loot + Visual Novel Fair $1.5k 14 devs
  19. Runner + Visual Novel Fair $750 12 devs
  20. 3D Platformer + Visual Novel Fair $716 44 devs
  21. Perma Death + Visual Novel Fair $538 21 devs
  22. Farming Sim + Visual Novel Long shot $239 11 devs
  23. Hack and Slash + Visual Novel Poor odds $85k 11 devs
  24. Turn-Based + Visual Novel Poor odds $55k 9 devs
  25. Base Building + Visual Novel Poor odds $42k 9 devs
  26. Deckbuilding + Visual Novel Poor odds $26k 36 devs
  27. Racing + Visual Novel Poor odds $21k 13 devs
  28. Roguelite + Visual Novel Poor odds $18k 66 devs
  29. FPS + Visual Novel Poor odds $15k 56 devs
  30. Action Roguelike + Visual Novel Poor odds $12k 23 devs
  31. Economy + Visual Novel Poor odds $11k 26 devs
  32. Time Management + Visual Novel Poor odds $11k 106 devs
  33. Open World + Visual Novel Poor odds $10k 58 devs
  34. Life Sim + Visual Novel Poor odds $8.4k 214 devs
  35. Dating Sim + Visual Novel Poor odds $8.0k 1,071 devs
  36. Sandbox + Visual Novel Poor odds $7.7k 48 devs
  37. Card Game + Visual Novel Poor odds $7.1k 63 devs
  38. Roguelike + Visual Novel Poor odds $6.9k 58 devs
  39. Card Battler + Visual Novel Poor odds $6.5k 48 devs
  40. Turn-Based Combat + Visual Novel Poor odds $6.3k 129 devs
  41. Cooking + Visual Novel Poor odds $6.3k 54 devs
  42. Management + Visual Novel Poor odds $6.2k 131 devs
  43. RPG + Visual Novel Poor odds $6.0k 1,067 devs
  44. Turn-Based Strategy + Visual Novel Poor odds $5.9k 64 devs
  45. Shoot 'Em Up + Visual Novel Poor odds $5.8k 11 devs
  46. Otome + Visual Novel Poor odds $5.6k 146 devs
  47. Simulation + Visual Novel Poor odds $5.4k 992 devs
  48. Resource Management + Visual Novel Poor odds $5.4k 58 devs
  49. Character Customization + Visual Novel Poor odds $5.1k 113 devs
  50. Building + Visual Novel Poor odds $4.9k 14 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dispatch 2025 · $157M Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020 · $55M Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation 2018 · $39M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut older $39.99 118,124 92% 3.5M $142M (exactly $141,713,363) ZA/UM
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series older $49.99 36,594 96% 1.1M $55M (exactly $54,880,022) Skybound Games
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation older $24.99 52,522 94% 1.6M $39M (exactly $39,375,743) ProjectMoon
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Senren＊Banka older $34.99 33,721 98% 1.0M $35M (exactly $35,396,934) YUZUSOFT
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy older $29.99 35,628 97% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,054,512) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
What Remains of Edith Finch older $19.99 47,036 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,207,489) Giant Sparrow
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Tiny Bunny $10.99 27,200 83% 816k $9.0M (exactly $8,967,840) Saikono, Sokar
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Date Everything! $29.99 6,629 93% 199k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) Sassy Chap Games
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
Mixtape $19.99 7,365 87% 221k $4.4M (exactly $4,416,790) Beethoven and Dinosaur

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.