Games › Open World › Open World + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Open World game?
Open World + Visual Novel
Of 58 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×6.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×461 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 84 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $10,194) |
| Top 25% | $62k (exactly $62,338) |
| Top 5% | $690k (exactly $690,474) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 58 |
| Released games | 194 |
| Announced | 84 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Visual Novel; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action RPG
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 10,899 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 5 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales 2018 · $9.4M 
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet 2018 · $9.3M 
Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition 2017 · $6.9M 
Fate/EXTELLA LINK 2019 · $6.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales | older | $19.99 | 15,665 89% | 470k | $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet | older | $19.99 | 15,461 79% | 464k | $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) | Dimps Corporation |
| | Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition | older | $39.99 | 5,731 78% | 172k | $6.9M (exactly $6,875,481) | AQURIA |
| | Fate/EXTELLA LINK | older | $49.99 | 4,209 92% | 126k | $6.3M (exactly $6,312,237) | Marvelous Inc. |
 | TOGETHER BnB | · EA older | $17.99 | 9,025 59% | 271k | $4.9M (exactly $4,870,792) | AURORA Games |
 | SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris | older | $19.99 | 5,017 61% | 151k | $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) | AQURIA Co., Ltd. |
 | Treasure of Nadia | older | $14.99 | 6,392 92% | 192k | $2.9M (exactly $2,874,482) | NLT Media |
 | Promise Mascot Agency | $24.99 | 2,569 96% | 77k | $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) | Kaizen Game Works | |
 | AKIBA'S TRIP: Undead ＆ Undressed | older | $19.99 | 3,076 84% | 92k | $1.8M (exactly $1,844,677) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | Ys X: Nordics | $59.99 | 890 76% | 27k | $1.6M (exactly $1,601,733) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Shattered Minds | · EA | $12.99 | 1,507 91% | 45k | $587k (exactly $587,278) | eXtasy Games |
 | Mika and The Witch's Mountain | $19.99 | 671 86% | 20k | $402k (exactly $402,399) | Chibig, Nukefist | |
 | Ys X: Proud Nordics | $69.99 | 168 75% | 5.0k | $353k (exactly $352,750) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH | |
 | MMA Life Simulator | $16.99 | 435 80% | 13k | $222k (exactly $221,719) | BNS7 | |
 | 万词破 - 单词女友 | $14.99 | 448 89% | 13k | $201k (exactly $201,466) | 万词破学游组 | |
 | Disillusion ST | $10.99 | 524 96% | 16k | $173k (exactly $172,763) | Disillusion Dev, Disillusion Dev | |
 | City Lights Love Bites Season 0 [Pilot Season] | $2.00 | 2,766 94% | 83k | $166k (exactly $165,960) | NaughtyOba |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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