Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Visual Novel?

Building + Visual Novel

Only 14 developers shipped a Building Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Succession of Changing Kings, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×232 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 22 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $103k → $776 → $112k → $4.9k → $5.2k → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,175)
Top 5% $146k (exactly $145,954)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 60
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Visual Novel
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,309 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard older $10.99 10,207 93% 306k $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) Bone Nail
Seed of the Dead: Sweet Home older $29.99 3,006 83% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,704,498) TeamKRAMA
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
Ravager · EA older $19.99 909 93% 27k $545k (exactly $545,127) 4MinuteWarning
The Succession of Changing Kings $9.99 487 86% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) KwaKwaGames
Midori no Kaori $9.99 464 94% 14k $139k (exactly $139,061) TheLaba
Horny Warp: Hentai Fantasy older $6.99 654 92% 20k $137k (exactly $137,144) LuminatiGames
Tristia:legacy older $59.99 69 89% 2.1k $124k (exactly $124,179) KOGADO STUDIO
HAREM!RANCH LIFE older $17.99 208 70% 6.2k $112k (exactly $112,258) GNT BOKUJO
How a Retired Strategist Saved the Country older $13.99 246 90% 7.4k $103k (exactly $103,246) tomadan
Heroic Songs: the Remix! $16.99 56 92% 1.7k $29k (exactly $28,543) Emma Create
Saviour of the Wasteland $9.99 84 78% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) PTGames
Sex Vault: The Lust-Tec Project $9.99 79 83% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Kinky Business Group
Grooveyard $4.99 35 100% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) GuavaGoose Games
Market Simulator $4.99 33 75% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) KOZGAMES
Ages of Cataria · EA $9.99 16 68% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Third Pie Studios
双雄风流传(Romantic Emperor) $2.18 53 86% 1.6k $3.5k (exactly $3,466) Turtle game
Veilscripture AI $39.99 2 100% 60 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Lanternwake

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.