Games › RPG › RPG + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel RPG?
RPG + Visual Novel
Of 1,067 developers who shipped a Visual Novel RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,581 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×793 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 1,581 games are announced against 659 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $898 (exactly $898) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.0k (exactly $5,998) |
| Top 25% | $46k (exactly $46,319) |
| Top 5% | $498k (exactly $498,101) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,067 |
| Released games | 3,457 |
| Announced | 1,581 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- RPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Dating Sim, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.79 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.79 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 113,349 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 644 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,581 games are announced against 659 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M 
Senren＊Banka 2020 · $35M 
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Library Of Ruina | older | $29.99 | 40,605 94% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $36,532,318) | ProjectMoon |
| | Senren＊Banka | older | $34.99 | 33,721 98% | 1.0M | $35M (exactly $35,396,934) | YUZUSOFT |
| | Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut | older | $17.99 | 31,885 96% | 957k | $17M (exactly $17,208,334) | Black Tabby Games |
 | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
 | The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty | older | $9.99 | 49,765 94% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,914,570) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | Volcano Princess | older | $10.99 | 45,019 97% | 1.4M | $15M (exactly $14,842,764) | 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher |
 | Summer Memories | older | $19.99 | 24,113 92% | 723k | $14M (exactly $14,460,566) | Dojin Otome |
 | Firework | older | $9.99 | 41,172 97% | 1.2M | $12M (exactly $12,339,248) | Shiying Studio |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Sora no Kiseki the 1st | $59.99 | 5,205 97% | 156k | $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård | |
 | Road to Empress Ⅱ | $18.00 | 7,773 80% | 233k | $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) | New One Studio | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Road to Empress I | $8.49 | 11,829 86% | 355k | $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) | New One Studio | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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