Do I ship it?

GamesMinigamesMinigames + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Minigames Visual Novel?

Minigames + Visual Novel

Of 20 developers who shipped a Minigames Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $22k, ×184 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $3.6k. Revenue is up 245% on the market; 19 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 184.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 245% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Minigames + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $37k → $525 → $4.1k → $11k → $900 (still earning) → $40k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Minigames + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $3.5k (exactly $3,510)
Median $22k (exactly $21,905)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $59,346)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $157,439)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 68
Announced 19
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 245% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Minigames
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Minigames, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Adventure, Dating Sim
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,714 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $22k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Minigames with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds14 devs · median $53k · 6 announced
  2. + Immersive SimStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  3. + Life SimStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  4. + SandboxFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + RomanceFair14 devs · median $11k · 15 announced
  6. + ManagementFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + ExplorationFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  8. + Action-AdventureFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  9. + Character CustomizationFair27 devs · median $5.7k · 34 announced
  10. + HorrorFair12 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  11. + MagicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  12. + NatureFair15 devs · median $2.1k · 6 announced

All 58 pairs on the Minigames page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MILF's Plaza older $14.99 1,585 73% 48k $713k (exactly $712,774) Texic
Stranded in Space · EA older $14.99 373 80% 11k $168k (exactly $167,738) Wildman
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs
Attentat 1942 older $10.99 448 92% 13k $148k (exactly $147,706) Charles Games
I got a millenary cat older $6.99 685 85% 21k $144k (exactly $143,644) CatBellUnion
Horny Warp: Hentai Fantasy older $6.99 654 92% 20k $137k (exactly $137,144) LuminatiGames
I Just Want to be Single!! Season One · EA $14.99 260 75% 7.8k $117k (exactly $116,922) m., Tsundere Studio
Lust Sisters 🔞 $14.99 215 67% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Carnality INC
Two Beasts Or Not To Beast! $24.99 125 99% 3.8k $94k (exactly $93,712) Tokinokogiri
To Trust an Incubus older $19.99 152 84% 4.6k $91k (exactly $91,154) Y Press Games
Isekai Bistro $10.99 180 78% 5.4k $59k (exactly $59,346) DarkShadow Studio
SEXNATURAL: MILFs Must Be Filled 😈💦 $14.99 100 84% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) Juicy Peach Games 🍑
Yokai: Lust Secret 🪭 $14.99 89 83% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,023) Lewd Star
FRESHMAN: Project SEX 🔞 $14.99 80 73% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,976) Lewd Star
Lust Night💋 $9.99 105 72% 3.2k $31k (exactly $31,468) Play and Cum 💦
Puppergeist $4.99 156 95% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,353) Serenity Forge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.