Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Visual Novel?

Perma Death + Visual Novel

Of 21 developers who shipped a Perma Death Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 18 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 18 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $540 → $449 → $2.5k → $297 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,268)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $24,276)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 37
Announced 18
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.02

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Interactive Fiction, Point & Click
Price point
$4.02 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.02.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,253 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $24k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  12. + PuzzleFair107 devs · median $536 · 110 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk 2020 · $1.4M Aliya: Timelink 2024 · $770k Majotori 2017 · $338k Starlight Revolver 2025 · EA · $157k Esperia ~ Uprising of the Scarlet Witch ~ 2023 · $25k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk older $1.49 31,802 96% 954k $1.4M (exactly $1,421,549) Nikita Kryukov
Aliya: Timelink older $2.99 8,587 97% 258k $770k (exactly $770,254) TDGame Studio
Majotori older $5.99 1,880 96% 56k $338k (exactly $337,836) Majorariatto
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs
Esperia ~ Uprising of the Scarlet Witch ~ older $18.99 44 95% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,067) Prismalice
Sex Apartment 2: Grand Hotel $9.99 81 71% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) Dreamers Workshop
Sex Apartment 💫 $4.99 150 62% 4.5k $22k (exactly $22,455) Dreamers Workshop
Little Girl On Earth Asking Why She Asking Why $0.99 525 93% 16k $16k (exactly $15,592) senpi, Nolly
HeatStroke older $1.99 199 89% 6.0k $12k (exactly $11,880) Talia bob Mair, Matt Garnett, Braden Ba… (Talia bob Mair, Matt Garnett, Braden Banning)
Moi Mei 2 older $9.99 20 90% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) FreeAnimals_Software
Loop//Error $2.99 40 95% 1.2k $3.6k (exactly $3,588) Koro Pixel Studio
Nullwake $5.99 14 78% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) DIG Games
Fortiori $8.40 9 100% 270 $2.3k (exactly $2,268) 79GAMES
The Last Road $8.99 8 100% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Crow Station Studios
Circus of the Moon $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Davter17
201 - The Bad Number $4.02 10 80% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,206) Pavel Kopylov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.