Games › Simulation › Simulation + Visual Novel
Should I ship a Visual Novel Simulation game?
Simulation + Visual Novel
Of 992 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,222 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×584 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 1,222 games are announced against 609 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
| Top 25% | $37k (exactly $37,163) |
| Top 5% | $367k (exactly $367,016) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 992 |
| Released games | 3,910 |
| Announced | 1,222 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Choices Matter, RPG
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 68,540 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 750 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,222 games are announced against 609 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation 2018 · $39M 
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023 · $17M 
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action 2016 · $15M 
Volcano Princess 2023 · $15M 
Summer Memories 2020 · $14M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation | older | $24.99 | 52,522 94% | 1.6M | $39M (exactly $39,375,743) | ProjectMoon |
| | Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut | older | $17.99 | 31,885 96% | 957k | $17M (exactly $17,208,334) | Black Tabby Games |
| | VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action | older | $14.99 | 33,838 97% | 1.0M | $15M (exactly $15,216,949) | Sukeban Games |
| | Volcano Princess | older | $10.99 | 45,019 97% | 1.4M | $15M (exactly $14,842,764) | 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher |
| | Summer Memories | older | $19.99 | 24,113 92% | 723k | $14M (exactly $14,460,566) | Dojin Otome |
 | The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- | $59.99 | 6,893 88% | 207k | $12M (exactly $12,405,332) | Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc. | |
 | Love Is All Around | older | $9.99 | 36,203 93% | 1.1M | $11M (exactly $10,850,039) | intiny |
 | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
 | コイカツ！ / Koikatsu Party | older | $59.99 | 5,298 91% | 159k | $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) | ILLUSION |
 | Suzerain | older | $19.99 | 10,574 92% | 317k | $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) | Torpor Games |
 | Date Everything! | $29.99 | 6,629 93% | 199k | $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) | Sassy Chap Games | |
 | Road to Empress Ⅱ | $18.00 | 7,773 80% | 233k | $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) | New One Studio | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Road to Empress I | $8.49 | 11,829 86% | 355k | $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) | New One Studio | |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 | |
 | Sweet Home | $7.99 | 9,910 94% | 297k | $2.4M (exactly $2,375,427) | 开心茶房 | |
 | Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis | $16.99 | 3,974 91% | 119k | $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548) | Alliance Arts, WHO YOU | |
 | Promise Mascot Agency | $24.99 | 2,569 96% | 77k | $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) | Kaizen Game Works |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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