Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Economy game?

Economy + Visual Novel

Of 26 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $400; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×490 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 54 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 54 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $97k → $44k → $37k → $27k → $18k → $2.5k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $395 (exactly $395)
Median $11k (exactly $11,394)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,519)
Top 5% $308k (exactly $307,646)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 70
Announced 54
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,703 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $400, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $400. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Idol Manager older $19.99 3,777 87% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,265,067) Glitch Pitch
STONKS-9800: Stock Market Simulator · EA older $9.99 3,124 95% 94k $936k (exactly $936,263) TERNOX
Max Gentlemen Sexy Business! older $19.99 1,492 92% 45k $895k (exactly $894,752) The Men Who Wear Many Hats
Maid Cafe on Electric Street $18.99 595 82% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) Adventurer's Tavern
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
Kardboard Kings: Card Shop Simulator older $19.99 325 73% 9.8k $195k (exactly $194,902) Henry's House, Oscar Brittain, Rob Gross
WORLD END ECONOMiCA episode.01 older $12.99 458 86% 14k $178k (exactly $178,483) Spicy Tails
The Succession of Changing Kings $9.99 487 86% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) KwaKwaGames
How a Retired Strategist Saved the Country older $13.99 246 90% 7.4k $103k (exactly $103,246) tomadan
Training Lucie older $9.99 324 90% 9.7k $97k (exactly $97,103) SecretGame
One Iced Latte With Your Breast Milk, Please! $9.99 292 83% 8.8k $88k (exactly $87,512) azaly, nemuaki
Egg Squeeze $3.99 374 98% 11k $45k (exactly $44,768) MATTER GAMES
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games
COWGIRL SEX FARM $6.99 136 72% 4.1k $29k (exactly $28,519) Cutie Booty
Brothel Tycoon $7.99 112 70% 3.4k $27k (exactly $26,846) DMA Games
Voyeur Villa - Harem Manager $19.99 44 75% 1.3k $26k (exactly $26,387) Sexy Hentai Games Factory
PurrPlate $9.99 64 68% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) LeankomGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.