Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Visual Novel

Of 23 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×24 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2599 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 23 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 23 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $44k → $2.0k → $127k → $66k → $42k → $64k → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Median $12k (exactly $11,527)
Top 25% $94k (exactly $93,538)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 56
Announced 23
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 9,331 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $93k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 4 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
Heading Out older $19.99 639 74% 19k $383k (exactly $383,208) Serious Sim, Crunching Koalas
ISEKAI FRONTLINE older $3.99 1,806 77% 54k $216k (exactly $216,178) Studio Ginkgo
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs
桃色武林 $9.99 504 78% 15k $151k (exactly $151,049) 人型ですカオス
Magic Pussy: Chapter 2 older $9.99 425 75% 13k $127k (exactly $127,372) Taboo Tales 💘
Sex Desert: Mad Lust $9.99 323 61% 9.7k $97k (exactly $96,803) Carnality INC
Magic Pussy: Chapter 3 $14.99 208 77% 6.2k $94k (exactly $93,538) Dirty Adventures 🖤
Horny Housewives 2 $14.99 146 63% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Entropy Digital Entertainment
CyberPimp 2069 $17.99 118 87% 3.5k $64k (exactly $63,685) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Shana - Priestess of Tona $9.99 190 74% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Lustration Team
Abyss Of Pleasure $11.80 139 88% 4.2k $49k (exactly $49,206) Jpegsama

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.